Local Elections 2024 —What can they tell us about the General Election?

Hello everyone, it me again.

Before the Local Elections, I did an analysis of what I believed would happen — where to watch on Election night, which seats in each area might be flipping and what the results might mean for the GE later in the year. I also pledged that :

“After the local elections, I will do a second article, which will analyse the results, and what they might say about the upcoming general election.”

And I’m keeping to my word. And for the upcoming general election, it could give us some important clues as to how the election will play out.

Conservatives

It goes without saying, the Conservatives had an awful night this year.

• Losing 474 Councillors (nearly half of the 989 Councillors they were defending) and 10/16 Councils they were defending. In fact, the Liberal Democrats won more councillors than the Conservatives (522 to the Conservative’s 515) My predictions here were pretty accurate — I correctly predicted the Conservatives would lose Adur, Basildon, Dudley, Dorset, Gloucester, Havant, North East Lincolnshire, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Rushmoor and Redditch, whilst they would hold Broxbourne, Epping Forest (although ultimately only by 22 votes), Fareham, Solihull and Walsall. The only Conservative council I incorrectly predicted was Harlow, which stayed Conservative 17–16 (although I acknowledged such a result was ‘not out of the question’, and ultimately, Labour fell just 37 votes short of a seat in Sumner and Kingsmoor which would have given them control of the council).
  For a GE, these results suggest that the Conservatives are either on course to lose, or are at least under serious threat, in :
• Aldershot (to Labour)

• Basildon South and East Thurrock (mostly likely to Labour, perhaps Reform UK)

• Bedworth and North Warwickshire (to Labour)
• Dudley (to Labour)

• Halesowen (to Labour)

• Mid Dorset and North Poole (to Liberal Democrats)
• Nuneaton (to Labour)
• Redditch (to Labour)
• Stourbridge (to Labour) (Small Conservative lead, but with 14.5% LD+GRE vote for Labour to squeeze and Reform standing, it still looks set to fall to Labour)

• West Dorset (to Liberal Democrat)

• Worthing East and Shoreham (to Labour)

(I included the LE results for constituencies where every part of the seat was up for election, so accurate results could be obtained).

Good Luck to the Conservatives in trying to win an election while losing even half of these areas.

However, Braverman looks secure in Fareham and Waterlooville — Fareham Council remained Conservative, as did all the Waterlooville wards moving into her seat — plus, whilst there is a Reform UK candidate, I suspect Braverman will pick up a lot of voters who would have gone Reform UK elsewhere.

Additionally, Harlow might be tricky for Labour, although with Reform UK standing I would still rate Labour as the favourites, especially if Labour decides to invest in more the seat more in response to the loss.

• Losing Blackpool South, a key marginal seat, by a stunning 41.4%. I personally predicted a 33% Labour win here, and that turned out to be conservative, with Reform UK just 118 votes short of overtaking the Conservatives for second place. Blackpool South has historically been a strongly Conservative seat, and even before the Conservatives won it again in 2019, it was a competitive seat throughout the previous decade. To lose it by 41.4%, a greater margin than most Labour MPs are sitting on, is a truly catastrophic result. Labour needs roughly a 9% swing to win the next General Election, the swing here was a massive 26.3%, almost three times that, the third biggest Conservative to Labour swing in history (behind Wellingborough in February and Dudley West in 1994). While I don’t think Labour will win Blackpool South by quite that much in the General Election, they should hold the seat very comfortably.
• Losing 10/11 Mayoral Elections. As I correctly predicted, Labour’s Claire Ward won the inaugural East Midlands Mayoral Election, while Labour’s David Skaith won in York and North Yorkshire, both by respectable margins which suggest that Labour will win most constituencies within these areas at the next election. Additionally, there were swings from the Conservatives to Labour in Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester, London (where Sadiq Khan won by his largest ever margin), Salford, South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire — while Labour already hold most constituencies within these areas, it looks like they are on course to gain even more from the Conservatives. Kim McGuinness beat Jamie Driscoll in the North East Mayoralty comfortably (41.3% to 28.2%), with the Conservatives coming a distant third on 11.7% — in a region where the Conservatives currently hold 6 seats.
  But their most damaging loss was in the West Midlands, where Labour’s Richard Parker narrowly defeated Andy Street but just 1,508 votes. Street was considered a well-regarded Conservative mayor which Sunak hoped could demonstrate voters were still willing to vote Conservative, but it was not to be, and with a lot of Conservative seats across the Black Country, its was heavily bruising loss for the Conservatives.
  And even in Tees Valley, where Ben Houchen was the only victorious Conservative Mayor, there was a massive 16.7% swing against him. For context, Labour need a 11.4% swing to gain Middlesborough South and East Cleveland, the safest Conservative seat in the region, and with Reform UK not standing in the race, the swing across the Tees Valley at the General Election is likely to be even larger, and its likely all 5 Conservative MPs in the region will lose their seats.
• Losing a swathe of Police and Crime Commissioners to Labour — Avon and Somerset, Bedfordshire, Cheshire, Cleveland, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Norfolk — all key areas Labour needs to win. The Conservatives were very close to losing a lot of others, and the switch to from a supplementary vote system (where voters could give two preferences) to FPTP saved them in a lot of areas — in a lot of places Labour were just a few points short, and with some transfers from the Liberal Democrats/Independents, they could have won. Just a few examples below

Maybe apart from holding Harlow and Tees Valley, there were no silver lining within these disastrous results for the Conservatives. It demonstrates they are on course for a massive drubbing at the upcoming general election, maybe not getting much more than 100 MPs. Its also worth remembering that in most areas, the Conservatives are likely to UNDERPERFORM relative to the local elections, for two reasons (and this is why any talk of a hung parliament this for the birds).

1. In local elections, smaller non-Conservative parties (primarily the Liberal Democrats and the Greens) tend to do better than they do in a General Election. In a number of places, they will often successfully manage to win 1/2 wards, and put in a formidable performance in many others beyond what they are likely to achieve in a General Election. In local elections, they will present themselves as the strongest voices for their wards, and aim to challenge both the Conservatives and Labour.

However, in a General Election, typically one party will be assumed to be the main challenger to the Conservatives (usually the party which came second at the last election, which in most constituencies is Labour), and anti-Conservative voters will coalesce around that candidate.

To give a good example from this year’s local elections, Altrincham and Sale West. While traditionally a Conservative seat (and they still hold some strength at a local level), this suburban Manchester seat has been trending away from them for some time, and the Tories held it by 11.2% in 2019, their lowest margin yet. Labour will now hope to flip the seat at the upcoming General Election.

However, the Conservatives won the vote across the constituency at the 2024 locals by 8.2% — 32.5% to 24.3%.

However, as you can see the LDs and Greens got 18.3% and 21.5% respectively, with each party winning two seats. This is not a realistic General Election outcome — the Liberal Democrats won the same two wards in the 2019 Local Elections, and averaged 16.6%, but only got 11% in the GE. As for the Greens, they won 1 ward (Altrincham) in the 2019 Locals, and averaged 15.8%, only to get just 2.9% in the General Election later that year. Even if you assume both parties increase their vote share (which for the Liberal Democrats is being optimistic for them, given Altrincham is not a target for them), Labour can expect to benefit from a lot of LD/Green transfers relative to the locals, and I’d expect the result to look something like this at the General Election :

And by squeezing the LD/Greens a bit more and with Reform UK perhaps doing a bit better, this may be on the low end of performances for Labour. Certainly very different from the 8.2% Conservative victory as implied by a literal interpretation of the locals.

2. The presence of Reform UK. Reform UK did field 323 candidates in this set of local elections, although only two were elected (both in Havant). However, with there being 2,655 candidates up for election, in the vast majority of councils (with a few exceptions, such as Bolton,Hartlepool and Sunderland) the Reform UK vote will be far below the level that should be expected at the General Election. This means that even in seats that on paper look like they should be firmly Conservative, Labour could see some surprise gains, given Reform UK will pretty much exclusively eat into the Conservative vote. And with Nigel Farage coming to lead the party, this has boosted Reform UK’s prospects, meaning they are likely to do even more damage to the Conservatives.

In General, a good indicator of how Reform UK will perform is with the formula

Polling Average x (% Leave Vote/51.9%)

For example, if we assume Reform UK is polling at 10% nationally, you can expect Reform UK to be polling at 4.8% in a 75% Remain seat and 14.5% in a 75% Leave seat — obviously each constituency will be different, with Reform UK overperforming in a number of seats and underperforming in others, but I believe this formula provides a reliable estimate of Reform UK’s support in most seats.

A, perhaps extreme, example of where this could make the difference is Basildon and Billericay. The Conservatives notionally won by 43.9% here in 2019, and this ought to be a safe seat they can defend even in a bad election like 2024 is destined to be. Richard Holden, the Chairman of the Conservative Party, clearly seems to think so — to much controversy within the local Conservative Party, he was imposed into the seat at the last minute — a 300 mile chicken run from his current North West Durham seat.

The recent local election results will have given him confidence that he can win — although Labour won all the council seats within ‘Basildon’, the immense and enduring Conservative strength in Billericay, Burstead and Castledon meant that the Conservatives fairly comfortably led Labour across the constituency at the local elections, with the Conservatives getting 44.6% to Labour’s 29.6, a 15% margin.

However, let’s factor Reform UK in here. Basildon and Billericay is a strongly Leave-voting constituency (with 67.1% voting Leave in 2016), and is likely to be fertile territory for Reform UK. Using the formula from before, assuming a poll average of 15%. Reform UK should be getting 19.4% here — thats enough to deprive the Conservatives of the seat. And with a significant LD/Green vote to squeeze, the local election results actually indicate that Labour has a very good shot of gaining this seat, despite losing it by double digits at the locals, even if Reform UK underperforms in a General Election relative to their current polling.

Imagine Reform UK taking just 7% from the Conservatives in every constituency, and you can see how damaging Reform UK can be to the Conservatives, even in solidly blue seats. And Reform UK are polling at least double that!

Basildon and Billericay would be an exceptional victory for Labour (the Conservatives won by 43.9% here notionally in 2019). A win here would show the Conservatives are in for an extremely bad night, as its way beyond what Labour needs for a majority. Nevertheless, I think its a good example of how much damage Reform UK could potentially do to the Conservatives, even in seats that on paper look secure for them, and why simply looking at local election results at face value can be deceptive. I’m certainly expecting a close race in Basildon and Billericay.
Looking through the local election results, I do not believe Reform UK will make a massive amount of difference to the overall result of the General Election — Most constituencies are on course to either vote Labour/Liberal Democrat without Reform UK’s presence (after consolidating the Labour/LD/Green vote as explained above) or are strongly Conservative enough that I don’t see Reform UK depriving them of the seat. I do not believe Reform UK will determine whether Labour gets a majority. However, even if Reform UK’s polling halves, and they ultimately only get say 6/7% in a GE (current polling typically puts them between 10–16%), that will still hurt the Conservatives massively, making it harder for them to retain their seats and potentially putting more seats at risk, especially in heavily leave-voting areas like Basildon and Harlow.

As I say, the general rule is that the general election results will be worse than the locals. This may not be the case for all seats — perhaps the Conservatives start to claw back some support from Labour, perhaps a constituency has a well-regarded Conservative MP who can outperform their party’s national and local position, perhaps Reform UK did have a decent presence in a constituency and the Conservatives gain a bit from them at the general election. However, the general rule still stands, and I can’t see the Conservatives clawing back much support from Labour at this stage — I think they’ll claw some back from Reform UK, but as they didn’t stand in most areas this won’t indicate that they are improving on their local election performance.

Let’s be very clear : At this point of time, the Conservatives are in for an electoral washout, we are not looking at anywhere near a hung parliament here. They are on course to lose most of their seats on the current trajectory, and even if they manage to attract a significant number of voters back from Reform UK, they’d still be on course for a massive election defeat. It’s hard to see how they come back from this.

Labour

Labour, in contrast, largely had a very good night overall.

• They gained majority control of 8 more councils overall — in addition to gaining Adur (+8), Nuneaton and Bedworth (+15) , Redditch (+9) and Rushmoor (+7) from the Conservatives as I predicted, they also gained a further six councils — Cannock Chase (+3) , Hartlepool (+7), Hyndburn (+6), Milton Keynes (+3), Tamworth (+9) and Thurrock (+8) — from No Overall Control, all of which I correctly predicted. Labour should pick up all the constituencies in these areas, and hold Tamworth, which Labour took in a by-election in 2023 and where Labour won 9/10 Council seats this year.
  Nationally, Labour netted 186 more councillors, including Calderdale (+3), Coventry (+3), Dudley (+8), Crawley (+5), Gloucester (+4), Harlow (+4), Ipswich (+5), Lincoln (+3), North East Lincolnshire (+6), North Hertfordshire (+6), Peterborough (+4), Plymouth (+10), Rugby (+3), Sandwell (+5), Sheffield (+2), Southend (+3), Sunderland (+6), Stevenage (+8), Stroud (+16), Swindon (+9), Trafford (+2), Wakefield (+8), Warrington (+6), Welwyn Hatfield (+8), Wokingham (+5) and Worcester (+3), as well as holding their ground in many other councils where they already dominate.

Labour look in a strong position to gain a lot of seats from the Conservatives based on the local election results, including :

• Altrincham and Sale West
• Basingstoke
• Bolton North East

• Bolton West
• Buckingham and Bletchley
• Burnley
• Bury North
• Bury South
• Calder Valley
• Cannock Chase

• Colchester
• Colne Valley
• Crawley
• Earley and Woodley
• Gloucester
• Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
• Hartlepool

• Hastings and Rye
• Heywood and Middleton North
• Hitchin
• Hyndburn
• Ipswich

• Keighley
• Leeds North West
• Leigh and Atherton
• Lincoln
• Milton Keynes Central
• Milton Keynes North
• Morley and Leeds South West
• North East Hertfordshire
• Ossett and Denby Dale

• Penistone and Stocksbridge
• Plymouth Moor View

• Rochford and Southend East
• Rossendale and Darwen
• Rother Valley
• Shipley
• Southampton Itchen
• Southend West
• Southport
• Stevenage
• Stroud
• Swindon North

• Swindon South
• Thurrock
• Tipton and Wednesbury
• Warrington South
• Welwyn Hatfield
• West Bromwich
• Wolverhampton North East
• Wolverhampton West
• Worthing West

Additionally, as mentioned before, they gained the constituency of Blackpool South, 10 Police and Crime Commissioners and won 10/11 Mayoralties, including defeating Andy Street in the West Midlands and winning the new East Midlands and York and North Yorkshire Mayoralties.

However, one thing is very clear from the local election results : Labour’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict has alienated many Muslim voters, and this has resulted in some jaw-droppingly bad results for Labour in many heavily Muslim areas, which I will write about in detail in a future piece. Labour lost control of two councils, Kirklees and Oldham, over the issue, saw heavy losses in Blackburn and Bradford and nearly lost the West Midlands Mayoral Election as a result of a heavy drop in support from Muslim voters. This may cost Labour a handful of constituencies at the next general election — this may come in the form of both Labour losing constituencies it already holds (or notionally holds) and depriving them of enough support in key marginals to stop them winning some target seats. However, with Labour on course for a landslide majority, losing a few seats (probably half a dozen at most), even if unsettling, isn’t going to fundamentally change the outcome of the next General Election, and its quite possible that Labour is able to absorb the hit and not lose any seats over Gaza.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats overall had a good night. They won 522 councillors, five more than the Conservatives won, gaining 104 Councillors overall.

However, they might be slighly disappointed they didn’t gain more councils — I forecasted that they would gain five councils — namely Brentwood, Dorset, Elmbridge, Gloucester and Wokingham , alongside possibly Stockport — and ultimately they only gained two, Dorset and Tunbridge Wells. However, it it worth noting they were 99 votes off an overall majority in Gloucester, 85 votes off an overall majority in Brentwood and just 10 votes off one in Wokingham, so a lot of extremely near misses.
They will also be disappointed not to win any police and crime commissioners, although they were just 1% off winning in Gloucestershire and 5.1% off in Surrey.

However, I still believe the Liberal Democrats will be satisfied with the results. Brentwood and Gloucester were never going to be realistic general election targets for them, and the local election results clearly suggest they are on course to comfortably win Cheadle, Esher and Walton, Hazel Grove and Wokingham at the General Election.

Dorset is a major victory for them, with it being one of the largest local authorities in the country and historically a very Conservative place. The local election results suggest they are on course for a clear victory in West Dorset and Mid Dorset and North Poole (where they hold councillors within every ward of the seat), and in Tunbridge Wells

Local Election Result in Tunbridge Wells

Based on the local election results, I also believe the Liberal Democrats could be in a position to gain :

• Bicester and Woodstock

• Cheltenham
• Dorking and Horley

• Eastleigh
• South West Hertfordshire
• Winchester
• Woking

They also lead Labour in Sheffield Hallam by 10.2% (40.3% to 30.1%). However, this was a sharp reduction from the 30.8% lead they enjoyed over Labour at the 2019 Local Elections (47.9% — 17.1%), only to narrowly lose to Labour by 712 votes (1.2%) at the 2019 General Election. This suggests Labour should hold the seat this time, but it could be vulnerable in future elections.

Greens

The Greens had a good night, winning 181 councillors, an increase of 74, They made breakthroughs into Bolton, Newcastle, Redditch and Sefton, and gained small numbers of seats in many councils, including in Cambridge, Exeter, Kirklees, Leeds, Norwich, Peterborough, Reigate and Banstead, Rossendale, South Tyneside, Winchester, Worcester and Worthing

They achieved some particularly good results in :

• Hastings — they increased their vote share by 14.2% relative to 2022, winning 37.7% accross the council to Labour’s 32.4%, and gained 8 seats, from both Labour (Central St Leonards, Gensing), the Conservatives (Baird, Maze Hill, Ore) and from formerly Labour Independents (Braybrooke, Castle, Tressell). A lot of this Green vote is likely to transfer to Labour in a General Election, and I’m expecting a comfortable Labour victory in Hastings and Rye later this year, however the Greens can expect a respectable showing (10%+), and they will be very optimistic about taking overall control of the council in 2026.
• Maidstone — they increased their vote share by 5.5% relative to 2023, winning 22.3% and 10 seats across the council, an increase of 7, both in urban Maidstone (in wards like Allington and Bridge, Fant and Oakwood and High Street) and in the rural areas (such as Coxheath and Farleigh and Marden and Yalding). The Greens aren’t likely to perform this well in a General Election, but will hope for a respectable performance (5–10%) in both Maidstone and Malling and the new Weald of Kent seat.
• Sheffield — the Greens won 22% of their vote across the council, and won 6 wards (losing one ward but gaining another), narrowly leading across Sheffield Central, 42.7% to 39.8%. However, this is a decline from 2019, where they led by 51.3% — 31.9% in the local elections but lost by 57.3% in the General Election, coming behind the Conservatives. I think the Greens will increase their vote share in Sheffield Central this time and come second, but Labour should hold it comfortably. However, this may be a seat to watch in future elections as one that could swing hard to the Greens.

• Stroud — While the Greens didn’t take the council as I predicted (with Labour doing far better), the Greens still made 8 net gains across the council, including in areas such as Amberley and Woodchester, Chalford, Minchinhampton, Painswick and Upton, Stonehouse and Wotton Under Edge, and narrowly led Labour across the Stroud constituency, 36.5% — 34.3%. Like in Hastings, I expect most of this Green vote to go Labour in a general election and for Labour to comfortably gain the constituency, however the Greens can expect a respectable showing (10%+) and will hope to gain the council in 2028.

However, the Green’s most significant result was Bristol. Here, they were up 9.4% on 2021, winning 41.2% of the vote to Labour’s 31.7%, and won 34 seats across the borough, an increase of 9 seats from before the election (with the Greens gaining a seat in Ashley, Central, Eastville, Lawrence Hill and St Georges West, and two seats in Knowle and St Georges Central) and only two seat shorts of a majority. They won the most votes in three parliamentary constituencies — Bristol Central, Bristol East (where they won 40.5% of the vote to Labour’s 31.6%) and Bristol South (where they won 37.3% to Labour’s 34.5%).

Perhaps most significantly, in Bristol Central, which the Greens are hoping to take off Labour at the next election, they did extremely well — they won all 14 council seats and got a whopping 58.8% of the vote across the constituency, 29.2% ahead of Labour, nearly double what Labour achieved. They needed a big victory here to indicate they could defeat Labour against the national tide, and they did.

However, Greens usually underperform in General Elections, and there will be a lot of people here that will go Green locally but vote Labour at the general election. In the 2016 Local Elections, the Greens got 31.5% across the Bristol West constituency, however they got just 12.9% in 2017 and 24.9% in 2019, and it is likely they will underperform again. However, the Greens very strong lead in the local elections suggest they are in with a genuine shot of winning the seat, and the seat is likely to be close — even if the Greens don’t win it in 2024, the Greens will take the seat one day. It will also be worth looking how how they do in Bristol East and Bristol South — while they have little chance of winning either, a formidable performance (at least 10%, perhaps even 15%-20%) would show that these seats could also be in play in the future.

The Greens will generally underperform their local election performance — with them not being a contender to win the vast majority of constituencies a lot of their vote will go to whoever is best placed to defeat the Conservatives, typically Labour. However, they will want to win Bristol Central, and sow the seeds for potential victories in the future.

Reform UK

As I mentioned before, Reform UK only fielded 323 candidates in this set of local elections, only 12.2% of the 2,655 seats up for election, and therefore it is difficult to draw too many meaningful conclusions from them. However, where they did make an effort, the results were lacklustre for a party who hopes to challenge both the Conservatives and Labour.

In Hartlepool, where party leader Richard Tice was planning to stand before moving down to Boston and Skegness, Reform UK averaged 14.9% across the constituency — a drop of 10.9% from the Brexit Party’s performance in 2019, with the Conservatives (who got 26.5%) clearly ahead of them, whilst Labour won 9/12 seats up for election and 43.5% of the vote, indicating that Labour is on course to retake Hartlepool (they lost it in a by-election in 2021), whilst Reform UK goes backwards.

In Sunderland, they more than doubled their vote from 6.7% in the 2023 Local Elections to 14.6% in the 2024 Local Elections, however, they came fourth place in terms of votes (placing behind Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats) and won no seats (with Labour winning 18/25, a net gain of 6, the Liberal Democrats winning 4 and the Conservatives winning 3), although they did come second in many wards. Again, this indicates that they are not a serious threat to Labour in the North East.

In Barnsley, although they didn’t stand in every ward, they averaged 18.9% across the 10 wards they stood in — this would represent a decline from the the 29.8% they averaged in Barnsley Central and East in 2019 under the Brexit Party banner. And with Labour’s getting 48.9% across the borough (with a lot of LD/Independent votes to squeeze) and 17/21 seats across the borough, they are no serious threat to Labour here.

In Bolton, where Reform UK stood a full slate, they averaged 11% across the borough, which is pretty lacklustre performance given the borough voted 58.3% to Leave the EU. However, did get 12.6% in Bolton North East, higher than Labour’s 11.1% lead over the Conservatives here, demonstrating that Reform UK can potentially deprive the Conservatives of seats, although in reality Labour will win here regardless of Reform UK, given many Reform UK voters won’t consider the Conservatives, and there being a 11.2% Green vote that Labour can somewhat squeeze (although with a lot of that Green vote being motivated by Labour’s position on Gaza, probably less than Labour would like).

In Plymouth Moor View, Reform UK stood candidates in most wards and averaged 10.8%. However, this is a lacklustre performance in a seat that where 68.5% voted for Brexit, and Labour would be on course for a comfortable victory even without them.

Elsewhere, the low number of Reform UK candidates makes extrapolating Reform UK’s performance off the 2024 Local Elections heavily unreliable.

However, their lacklustre Local Election performance doesn’t mean they won’t influence the next General Election. With Reform UK polling at double digits (they’ll likely get at least 10%, perhaps even 15–16%, and Nigel Farage’s return has boosted their polling) they could manage to shave a lot of votes off the Conservatives, helping widen Labour’s winning margins in many seats, and possibly contribute to dozens of seats going Labour, especially in areas like Harlow where Labour’s may otherwise struggle to break through. And given most Conservative-held Labour targets have an above average leave vote (with Labour already holding many remain constituencies in places like Bristol, Liverpool, London and Manchester, and the SNP holding most of heavily- remain Scotland), this means Reform UK are likely to do even better than their polling average, and may take up to 15–18% of the vote in some key Labour targets (as they did in Blackpool South, where they got 16.9% and nearly pushed the Conservatives into third place).
Remember, in most constituencies, this will take MORE votes from the Conservatives relative to their local election performance, which was largely appalling even without Reform UK.

Reform UK may also help the Liberal Democrats where they are the main challenger, and help the SNP win the six Conservative-held seats in Scotland.

However, even without Reform UK, Labour are already likely to win a majority — they got the most votes in the majority of constituencies that had council elections in 2024, and with Liberal Democrats/Green transfers there are not likely to be that many seats where Labour need Reform UK to win. Reform UK is likely to simply make the Conservative defeat bigger rather than cause the Conservative’s defeat themselves.

You can quickly see why predictions of anything near a hung parliament are foolish.

Could Reform UK actually win any seats? Despite averaging 15% in the opinion polls, local election results don’t suggest they could, there is no Reform UK equivalent of Bristol Central to point at as a place they could break through. They might be more successful if they decided to focus on a small number of seats (perhaps 3/4, at max 12), pick strong candidates for those constituencies , and put most of their efforts into gaining those seats, as opposed to targeting a wide range of constituencies where in most cases all they will be doing is increasing Labour’s majority in that seat. However, apart from Clacton, they don’t have any particular targets, which mighg ultimately hold them back.

Could Nigel Farage win Clacton? Again, thats another article I will do in the near future.

Reform UK’s second target seems to be Boston and Skegness, which voted 75.9% to Leave the EU, the highest % in the UK, and 76% for the Conservatives in 2019, and where Richard Tice is looking to take the seat. I think its doable for Reform UK, however I’m sceptical Richard Tice can break through in a seat he has no particular connection to with just a few weeks of campaigning, even with the Conservatives in dire straits and Boston and Skegness being fertile territory for Reform UK. Reform UK needs a **38%** swing to gain Boston and Skegness, which is an truly enormous swing — for context, this would be the second biggest swing in a General Election in British history, only behind the 39.3% swing from Labour to SNP in Glasgow North East in 2015 — and its a very tall order to expect Reform UK to gain the seat. However, with the Conservatives imploding nationally, I wouldn’t rule out a surprise Reform UK gain here.

Based on the local elections, one good other potential target may be Castle Point. Based between Basildon and Southend on the south coast of Essex, the Conservatives got 76.4% of the vote here in 2019, their highest share in the country and 59.5% lead over Labour. It also voted for Brexit by 72.7%, making it the sixth strongest Leave area in the country. This is not a seat Labour will even dream of winning, even now. However, local election results couldn’t be more different. The Tories got just **14.5%** in the local elections, losing all their councillors, with 74.8% of the vote going to Independents. Clearly, not all of those Independents will go Reform UK, many will go Conservative or Labour in a General Election, however the results indicate a complete breakdown in Conservative support (the borough was Conservative-run as recently as 2022), and many residents may be open a right-wing, anti-establishment party, which is what Reform UK markets itself as. If Reform UK decided to focus on winning it, they could well do so, and could well be a surprise Reform UK gain.

Another good target would be Basildon South and East Thurrock, which neighbours Castle Point, and like Castle Point voted very strongly for Brexit (by 73%, the fourth highest rate in the country) and the Conservative Party in 2019 (who won 66.4%, a 43.9% lead over Labour). However, in the most recent local elections the Conservatives collapsed, winning only one council seat across the constituency this year, with the Tories getting just 26.5% of the vote, with Independents winning 37.3%. Again, not all Independents will align with Reform UK, but the results indicate a complete breakdown in Conservative support where a right-wing, anti-establishment party like Reform UK could do well. Labour also beat the Conservatives here, with 31.7%, and a strong Reform UK presence could make this an interesting three way battle, where both Labour and Reform UK may have a good shot at winning.

Conclusion

It is important to note that there were no local elections in many areas, including London, Scotland, Wales and many district councils, although Labour did well last time these areas were up with the Conservatives making losses.

Overall, the polls are entirely correct in predicting a massive Conservative drubbing at the next election. They are on course to lose most of their seats, including some seats that were previously considered very safe, and will likely do worse at the general election when Labour manages to consolidate the LD/Green vote around it and Reform UK stands in every constituency. It is very difficult to see how they revive their fortunes — there is no evidence they are winning back voters from Labour, even at this late stage when you’d expect the polls to narrow, and even without Reform UK they are in for a very bad defeat at the next election.

Labour should expect to see massive gains from the Conservatives at the next election, and get a comfortable parliamentary majority. They will benefit from voters switching directly from the Conservatives to Labour, Reform UK taking votes from the Conservatives and from tactical voting, with many voters who backed the LDs/Green/Independents at the local elections to transfer to them. People are tired of 14 years of Conservative government, and are ready to put their trust in Labour. However, while Labour should have no problem winning most seats, there may still be some challenging areas for them —they may be at risk of losing Bristol Central to the Greens, and in many areas where there is a significant Muslim population (like Birmingham, Blackburn, Bradford, Kirklees, Oldham and parts of London), they may lose a lot of votes, maybe even some seats to Independents/Workers Party, from Muslim voters unhappy with Labour’s stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict. However, Labour are only likely to lose a small handful, if any, seat over their stance on the conflict, and is extremely unlikely to make any meaningful difference on a national level.

The Liberal Democrats can also expect to see significant gains at the next general election, winning both seats they won during the Blair/Coalition years, as well as winning new areas they’ve never won before (such as Bicester, Dorset West, Esher and Walton, Woking and Wokingham). They are likely to get at least 40 seats, and on a very good night could even get up to 75, due to how much the Conservatives have fallen and how strongly the Liberal Democrats have performed in recent local elections. With the likely collapse of the SNP, they are likely to become the third largest party in the commons, and will play an important role holding the incoming Labour government to account.

The Greens will hope to make a breakthrough in Bristol Central, hold Brighton Pavillion and hope to win the new Waveney Valley seat. However, they are unlikely to be a major force within the next parliament, with 1–3 MPs not being enough to influence any meaningful change. They will hope that they sow the seeds of future victories, getting respectable performances in places like Hastings and Rye, Sheffield Central and Stroud which they can build on in future elections.

Reform UK don’t have a strong local presence, and although they might be deprive the Conservatives of victory in many seats, they are likely to struggle to gain seats — in most areas, they need 30%+ swings from the Conservatives to Reform UK, and without any local presence, that will be challenging, given there is no evidence of extensive campaigning in any seat, no local record they can stand on and there is little indication of where Reform UK’s key targets are. Simply getting 10-15% in most seats won’t translate into election success. They could be a force to watch in the coming months, although they are unlikely to be a major force in the next parliament.

There is still a lot that can still happen before the general election . It will be interesting to watch, and I hope I can provide some more political insight throughout the next week.