Local Elections 2024 : Councils to Watch

On the 2nd May 2024, local councillors for 107 unitary, metropolitan and district local councils in England, the directly elected Mayor of London, all 25 members of the London Assembly, 8 directly elected regional mayors in England, 1 directly elected local council mayor in England, 38 police and crime or police, fire, rescue, and crime commissioners in England and Wales will be up for election. There will also be a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South, which I will cover in a separate article.

These will be important local elections, given they take place months before a general election is likely to take place, they can give us important indications of what is likely to happen at the general election — how are each party faring in their battlegrounds, where might there be surprise upsets, and where each party may be doing well or badly.

It is important to note local elections do not necessarily correspond to general election success, but I think they generally give a clear indicator of which areas look promising for a party and which areas don’t.

Most seats up for election were last up in 2021. Then, the Conservatives were riding high in the polls due to a smooth rollout of the vaccination program and uncertainty about Labour. Since then, having failed to deliver for the country and mired in all sorts of bad behavior, the Conservatives have crashed and burned in the polls — and are currently around 20% behind Labour. Therefore, these set of local elections are likely show sharp losses for the Conservatives, mostly at the expense of Labour, but also at the expense of the Liberal Democrats in some places, similar to last years locals, where they lost a massive 48 Councils and 1063 councillors — although fewer councils are up this time, so the headline numbers will be much more modest.
However, it may not be entirely smooth sailing for Labour either. Now the largest party in local government, there will be certain areas where there may be unhappiness with the local council, and suffer because of it. Also, there may be a number of area where Labour voters revolt against the national leadership, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict. I will highlight both the areas where Labour will be very confident in, and the areas they might be somewhat anxious about.

In this article, I want to provide a run down of where to watch on election night, what seats in each area might be flipping and what it might mean for the GE later this year.

After the local elections, I will do a second article, which will analyse the results, and what they might say about the upcoming general election. This article will essentially be a ‘Where to Watch’ guide.

Council Elections

There are 107 councils up for election in 2024. Of these, Labour currently have a majority in 43, the Conservative have a majority in 16, the Liberal Democrats have a majority in 10 and no party has an overall majority in 38.

Conservatives

The Conservatives have outright majorities in 16 councils they are defending this year.

• Adur (Shoreham)
• Basildon
• Broxbourne
• Epping Forest
• Dudley
• Dorset
• Fareham
• Gloucester
• Harlow
• Havant
• North East Lincolnshire
• Redditch
• Rushmoor (Aldershot)
• Nuneaton and Bedworth
• Solihull
• Walsall

Dudley

Dudley

Based in the Black Country to the West of Birmingham, the borough of Dudley contains the towns of Dudley, Halesowen, Stourbridge and Brierley Hill. With three entire Labour targets within the boundaries — Dudley, Halesowen and Stourbridge — it will probably be the most significant council of this years local election, and it is no surprise Keir Starmer launched the party’s local election campaign there.

Currently, the Conservatives hold 42/72 seats in the borough, relative to Labour’s 26, the Liberal Democrats’ 1 and 3 Independents. However, its all outs in Dudley next May, and thats a massive problem for the Conservatives. They did extremely well in 2021, winning 21/24 of the seats up for election that year. However, they have fallen a long way since then. In the 2023 Local elections, Labour won 12/24 seats up for election, and pretty comfortably beat the Conservatives in 9 seats they won in 2021.

Which basically means 9 virtually guaranteed Conservative losses, given both their national position and local position (they are having to make significant cuts to avoid bankruptcy) hasn’t improved at all since last year, and means they are very likely to lose their majority this year at the very least.

However, a Labour majority is not quite as nailed on. They decisively lost Cradley and Wollescote in a by-election last year to the Liberal Democrats, and the Liberal Democrats are likely to at least defend this seat, and will hope to gain other wards in the seat. Ryan Priest might have a personal vote which doesn’t transfer, but nevertheless its not a ward Labour can bank on.

So basically, Labour are almost certain to win 33 seats, and need to find 4 more to get an overall majority. One source is Cradley, as mentioned above.

However,, Labour did come close in a number of Conservative-held wards last year, and with the Conservatives poor reputation locally and nationally they will hope to make further gains. Labour were 3.5% off a seat in Brierley Hill, 6.5% off on Wordsley, 11.6% off in Hayley Green and Cradley South, 15.8% off in Amblecote and 16.1% in Belle Vale. It would be extraordinary if Labour won all 15 wards, but Labour will be hopeful of picking up a sizeable number of councillors in these wards, possibly with some ticket splitting

Also, a few Conservative councillors have recently quit the party, and intend to stand as Independents — Anne Millward and Mark Westwood in Gornal, Sean Keasey and Brad Simms in Sedgeley and Peter Miller in Kingswinford South. These wards are usually very safe Conservative (although Millward got within 8.6% in Gornal last year), but there is a realistic chance some of these councillors win, grinding the Conservatives down further, and it highlights divisions amongst the Conservatives which their opponents can exploit and ultimately means the Conservatives have to sink resources into seats they should be able to rely on.

Overall, i’d probably say a narrow Labour majority is most likely, however there is a considerable chance Dudley goes into NOC, where Labour might still be able to gain control through an alliance with the LDs. The Conservatives are unlikely to defend their majority, if they do that would be extremely good result for them that Sunak will champion, but they can hope that Labour don’t get an outright majority and can possibly run the council as a minority adminstration. However, I think a Conservative-run Dudley post May is extremely unlikely.

Dorset

Durdle Door, Jurassic Coast, Dorset

Based in the South West of England with a varied landscape of chalk downs, steep limestone ridges and low-lying clay valleys, the borough of Dorset encompasses the towns of Beaminister, Blandford Forum, Bridport, Dorchester, Ferndown, Gillingham, Lyme Regis, Shaftesbury, Sherborne, Swanage, Verwood, Wareham, Weymouth and Wimborne Minister, alongside a range of small villages. It does not contain the towns of Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole, with these three towns forming their own unitary authority that was up for election last year.

Currently, the Conservatives have a majority on the council, albeit only a very narrow one, 43/82 seats, alongside 27 Liberal Democrats, 5 Greens, 2 Labour councillors and 5 Independents, with the last election being in 2019 (making it the only council that has never had an election since the last general election). However, last year, when elections were held for most councils that were up in 2019, the Conservatives made massive losses (1063 councillors and 48 councils), and things haven’t improved since then, and with the Conservatives’ narrow majority here, Dorset looks very likely to be yet another Conservative loss.

And if neighbouring BCP Council is anything to go by, it could be a bloodbath for the Conservatives

2023 Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council Election.

The main beneficiary is likely to be the Liberal Democrats, who have demonstrated in many places they can appeal to voters disillusioned with the Conservatives, but have too many hardened preconceptions about Labour to vote for them. They are likely to hold all (or at very least the vast majority) of the seats they won in 2019, mostly around Dorchester and Sherborne, and will be looking to make sweeping gains off the Conservatives.

Generally speaking, any seat the Conservatives won by less than 20% is vulnrable to the Liberal Democrats. These include : Beaminister, Chalk Valleys, Chickerell, Corfe Mullen (2 Seats), Gillingham (3 Seats), Lytchett Matravers and Upton (1 Seat, 2 already LD), Stalbridge and Marnhull, Stour and Allen Vale, Sturminster Newton, South East Purbeck, West Purbeck (2 seats) Winterborne North and Yetminster. On a good night for them, they may also he able to win Blandford (2 seats) and Puddletown and Lower Winterborne, and there may be other seats where they manage to win despite a lacklustre performance in 2019, or even where they didn’t even field a candidate five years ago. They will also be looking to gain back a seat in Radipole after one of their councillors quit the party, and gain a seat in Bridport from the Greens.

The Greens are also likely to pick up seats, having gained the Conservative seat of Lyme and Charmouth in a by-election a couple of years ago, which I expect them to hold. Chesil Banks and Marshwood Vale look to be easy pick up opportunities, with Eggardon being more difficult, but still a feasible target. They will also hope to hold Melcombe Regis and their 2 seats in Rodwell and Wyke (and gain the third seat off Labour), all within Weymouth, although I imagine Labour will also be targeting Rodwell and Wyke hard. In Bridport, where they have one councillor, they may also be under threat from the Liberal Democrats, who are fielding three candidates.

Dorset has never been a strong area for Labour (although they are optimistic of winning Bournemouth East and West for the first time), but they will hope they can flip South Dorset with their current polling. Portland (1 Labour, 2 Independents), Rodwell and Wyke (1 Labour, 2 Greens), Swanage (2 Conservatives) and Westham (2 Liberal Democrats) are likely to be their targets, and they will hope to increase their current tally of 2 councillors, and indicate they have some momentum within South Dorset. Elsewhere, they are unlikely to perform well at all.

The Conservatives are likely to take a massive battering, but there are some areas where they are unlikely to lose, including Blackmore Vale, Cranbourne Chase, Ferndown, St Leonards and St Ives, Verwood, West Moors and Three Legged Cross and West Parley. Not only were the Conservatives very strong in most of these areas (Generally getting over 55% of the vote, with a massive lead over the LDs/Greens), but UKIP also tended to do well in these seats, and in their absence some of their vote will probably help reinforce the Conservative vote. The Conservatives will also hope to defend a lot of their seats from the Liberal Democrats/Greens, and at least hope to deprive the Liberal Democrats of an overall majority.

Independents may also factor into the election. One is standing down in Chickerell with no replacement, but another in Dorchester is standing alongside a Liberal Democrat and will likely be elected alongside him. There are also two Independents in Portland, although it is unclear whether they are likely to survive. It is possible a few new Independents get elected, although they aren’t present in most wards.

The Liberal Democrats need to make 15 gains to take outright control of the council. With the Liberal Democrats record is local elections, I think this is the most likely outcome, with countless potential areas to win. There is a significant possibility they fall slightly short of that, but in that scenario its likely the Liberal Democrats and the Greens (perhaps Labour) agree to form an adminstration together. Either way, the Liberal Democrats are likely to run Dorset Council, with the Conservatives losing control, perhaps an ominous sign for the General Election.

Harlow

While not as big as some of the other councils, Harlow is a typical bellweather area, and both the Conservatives and Labour will be looking to win it this year.
On a local level, the Conservatives gained the council from Labour in 2021, winning 10/11 wards up for election that year, and the council has stayed Conservative since. However, Labour have been steadily recovering since then — winning 4/11 wards up for election in 2022, and 6/11 in 2023, also winning the most votes across the council (winning 43.8% to the Conservatives’ 41.5%). This year, the whole council is up for election on new boundaries, and Labour will be hoping to win back Harlow Council, and demonstrate it is on course to win the Harlow constituency later in the year.

Labour can probably count on 15 seats — 3 Seats in Bush Fair, Little Parndon and Town Centre, Mark Hall, Nettleswell, Passmores. All these wards (or the main predecessor to them) voted Labour in 2023 by at least 10%, and it can reliably be assumed they will stay Labour in what is a favourable electoral climate for them.

On the other hand the Conservatives can probably count on Church Langley North and Newhall (mostly based off Church Langley, where the Tories won by 38.3% last year).

They will also hope to win three seats in Great Parndon (where they won by 21.4% last year), Old Harlow (14.8% win, but the ward has lost Newhall to Church Langley North which will probably hurt them) and Church Langley South and Potter Street (Based off Church Langley and part of Harlow Common, where Labour won by 4.1% last year). However, with the Conservtives continuously combusting, it would not be a surprise if Labour managed to flip 2/3 seats amongst these wards.

However, Labour’s main battlegrounds will be :

• Latton Bush and Stewards (Latton), made up of most of the former Staple Tye ward, which the Tories won by just 2.4% last year, alongside the other part of Harlow Common). I imagine this ward would have narrowly gone Labour last year, and Labour will be hoping for three Labour councillors here this time.
• Sumners and Kingsmoor (Sumners), made up of the entirity of the former ward of the same name with part of Staple Tye. The Conservatives won the main predecessor by 7% last year, but with the Conservatives’ continuing struggles Labour will be hoping to win at least a couple of seats in the ward.

Overall, it is not out the question the Conservatives hold the council if they are well organised — by winning all 15 wards they won over 10% last year, whilst managing to win all (or all bar one) of the seats in Latton and Sumners. This would probably be seen as an encouraging result for Sunak, the kind of result where he’d argue that voters aren’t convinced by Labour
However, with Labour targeting the constituency hard and the Conservatives increasingly poor national position, it is difficult to see Labour failing to gain it.

In many ways similar to Harlow, Redditch will be another key council to watch.

Redditch Council has been Conservative since 2018, although in 2021 the Conservatives got their best result ever and won every ward up for election. However, Labour have since rebounded strongly, winning 7/11 seats up for election in 2022 and 6/10 in 2023–in the latter year, winning the most votes across the council (43.8% to 38.8%), despite two of Labour’s strongest wards not being up for election. This year, the whole council is up for election on new boundaries, and Labour will be hoping build on their strong performances over the last two years to retake Redditch Council, and demonstrate it is on course to win the Redditch constituency later in the year.

And given Labour’s recent local election performances, it is difficult to see how they don’t take the council from the Conservatives.

Labour can almost certainly count on 12/27 seats — 3 seats each Central, Greenlands and Lakeside, Matchborough and Woodrow and North. All these wards, or their predecessors, voted Labour by at least 10% the last time they were contested, and with the national environment being very favourable for Labour this is unlikely to change. Labour need just 2 more seats for a majority, and I’m confident they can get that

• Batchley and Brockhill — Labour won by a comfortable 23.8% last year, but the elected councillor has since defected to the Liberal Democrats. This might have some impact on the results, maybe pushing the Conservatives into third, but given the LDs got just 3.3% last year, I think the most likely result is three Labour councillors, maybe 2 Labour and one Liberal Democrat, but a full Liberal Democrat slate is unlikely.
• Headless Cross and Oakenshaw — This ward is unchanged, and went for Labour last year by 3.4%, with Labour having gained another seat within the ward in a by-election in 2022. Labour will be hoping for three seats here, and should at least top the poll, but given the narrow margin last year the Conservatives might manage to hold their seat. But I’d be surprised if Labour didn’t retain their two seats here.
• Winyates — This ward went Conservative by 6.5% last year, but boundary changes expand the ward into Labour-inclined Matchborough, and this will likely help Labour gain at least one seat there, perhaps even 2/3 seats.
• Webheath and Callow Hill — This is largely based off the former ‘West’ ward, where the Conservatives won by 12.4% over the Greens last year, whilst also taking in Callow Hill from the abolished Crabbs Cross seat, where Labour was just 1.3% short of gaining a seat from the Conservatives last year. The Conservatives will probably top the poll here, but Labour or the Greens might be able to take 1/2 seats off them.
• Astwood Bank and Feckenham — A more rural ward to the south of Redditch, this was the Conservatives safest ward last year, with them winning by 17.5% over Labour, but it is expanded into the aforementioned Crabbs Cross. The Conservatives are likely to win all three seats here, but Labour might be able to win one of two seats on a very good night.

Overall, Redditch is a near certain gain for Labour — they are almost certain to win 12/27, and have a great shot at winning most of the other seats. A very strong result for Labour is likely, putting them on course to gain the parliamentary seat at the General Election.

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Elsewhere in Warwickshire, we have Nuneaton and Bedworth.

The Conservatives gained a majority on Nuneaton and Bedworth Council in 2021, and expanded it in 2022. They currently hold 27/34 seats, compared to Labour’s 5 and the Green’s 2. However, with the Conservatives haemorrhaging support nationwide and the council being all out on new boundaries (with 4 new seats being added), Labour will fancy their chances of trying to flip the council. Meanwhile, the Conservatives will hope they can defend their big majority, and provide a much needed boost for Rishi Sunak in a key bellweather area.

With significant boundary changes, it may be difficult to predict how each seat will go, but I’ll give it a good shot (All wards shown above have two wards).

If we assume a 5% swing to Labour, I would expect Labour to win at least 12 seats — in Bede, Camp Hill, Chilvers Coton,St Marys and Stockingford — the predecessors to these wards either voted Labour in 2022, or voted Conservative by less than 10%. Additionally, Attleborough (17.9% majority in 2022) looks to have got a lot more marginal, losing terrain to heavily Conservative Whitestone and gaining it from the Labour strongholds of Abbey and Wem Brook, so I’d predict a further 2 gains there. The Greens are likely to win 3 seats at least between Milby, St Nicolas and Weddington (they won Weddington and came within 10% of St Nicolas in 2022, Milby is formed out of the two wards).

If this happened, the Conservatives would narrowly retain their majority (21 Conservatives, 14 Labour, 3 Greens).

Ultimately, the Conservatives fate comes down to three of the Bedworth wards, Exhall (9.6% Conservative majority in 2022, but loses territory to the north which probably helps the Conservatives), Heath (12.7%) and Poplar (14%). If Labour win all six, they’ll win a majority. If the Conservatives win all six (highly unlikely with their current national position), they’ll retain a majority. Labour might also be able to gain some seats in Arbury and Galley Common, where the Conservatives won by 22.5% and 21.3% respectively in 2022, but Labour will be helped by the Greens standing down.

The Conservatives are unlikely to lose Bulkington, Slough and Whitestone, with their predecessors voting Conservative by over 30% in 2022 (in Whitestone’s case a whopping 50%), Meanwhile, they are likely to win both seats in Eastboro (containing a big chuck of Whitestone, but also parts of Green-inclined St Nicolas and Waddington), but the Greens could pull off an upset, and one seat in Milby.

The Greens are only standing two candidates in Waddington, but will be aiming to gain a seat in Milby, St Nicolas and Eastboro, despite only fielding one candidate in each.

Overall, while I see a path for a Conservative majority, which would be a major boost to Sunak which he would likely brag about, I think its more likely they lose control. Labour has a good shot at overall control if they perform strongly in Bedworth, but if they fall short they are likely to be able to make an agreement with the Greens to run the council. Overall, a Labour administration is likely.

Basildon

From working class Warwickshire to working class Essex, Basildon could possibly be another interesting area to watch.

Currently, the Conservatives have a narrow majority on Basildon Council, with 24/42 seats, with Labour having 9 seats and Independents having 7, in addition to two vacancies. However, the whole council is up for election on new boundaries this year, and they may struggle to retain their majority.

Labour comfortably won Fryerns, Lee Chapel North and St Martins last year, and can be confident of doing so again. They will also be hopeful of winning 3 seats in Laindon Park, Pitsea North West and Pitsea South East (the former two they narrowly won last year, and the latter they lost by 19 votes, but boundary changes add parts of the old Vange ward, which Labour comfortably won last year), although the Conservatives will hope they can defend a couple of seats in these areas. If Labour won all the seats in these six wards would give them 18 seats, doubling their number of councillors, and make them the largest party on the council.

Meanwhile, Independents are very likely to win all six seats in Langdon Hills and Nethermayne, with both wards having voted strongly for them over the last couple of years, with Labour only fielding 1/3 candidates per ward. The Wickford Independents will be looking to win 3 seats in Wickford North , having won it comfortably in 2023, and 2/3 seats in Wickford Park, which they narrowly lost last year (although for some reason they are only fielding two candidates).

The Conservatives should be confident of winning Billericay East (where they won by 39.4% last year), Burstead (40.1%) and Castledon and Crouch (Based off Wickford Castledon and Crouch. Crouch voted Conservative by 52.6% over Labour in 2022, and Wickford Castledon voted Conservative by 12.8% over the Wickford Independents last year, who aren’t standing here). The Liberal Democrats are likely to be the main challengers in all these wards, with Labour only fielding one candidate per ward. They should also win the last seat in Wickford Park. Additionally, they will hope to hold Billericay West, which they won by 15.5% over the Liberal Democrats last year, although the Liberal Democrats may manage to break through here this year.

Overall, the Conservatives are very likely to lose their majority, with the Wickford Independents gaining seats in Wickford and Labour gaining seats in Laindon Hills and Pitsea. The most likely outcome here is a Labour/Independent coalition, as was the case before the Conservatives gained a majority in 2021. The Conservatives will be hoping their vote holds up here, otherwise it may indicate they are heading for one or two upsets at the general election later in the year.

North East Lincolnshire

Centred on the town of Grimsby, alongside a range of smaller towns on the North Lincolnshire coast including Barton, Cleethorpes and Immingham, is the borough of North East Lincolnshire.

North East Lincolnshire is currently Conservative-run, with 27/42 seats, to Labour’s 9, the Liberal Democrats 3 and 3 Independents. Unlike the other councils I’ve mentioned, North East Lincolnshire is electing in thirds this year. However, the Conservatives defending a very high watermark — the Conservatives won 11/12 seats up for election in 2021, and won 60.3% of the vote between them. In 2023, the Conservatives got just 41.5% and lost six seats they won in 2021 by double digits.

And with the national environment getting no better for the Conservatives, I expect them to lose all six this year, taking them to 21/42 seats, meaning they lose their majority. The Conservatives may also be vulnerable in Park (where the Conservatives won by just 5.9% over Labour last year), Scartho (where they won by 9.7% last year) and maybe even Immingham (where they won by 13.2% last year). Overall, I expect the Conservatives to lose their majority, although they may be able to run the council as a minority, if the opposition parties don’t agree to work together.

Adur

From the North East coast, we now come to the Southern coast. Adur is situated between Brighton and Worthing, and whereas the other areas I’ve talked about have tended to be ‘Red Wall’ kind of areas, Adur (also known as Shoreham) is a ‘Blue Wall’ area, having always been Conservative, but the kind of area that is trending towards Labour fast (like next door Worthing, where Labour now run the council despite having no councillors prior to 2017). Additionally, Labour performed very strongly in neighbouring Brighton last year, and its hard to believe Labour won’t win a council sandwiched between two Labour hotspots.

Currently, Adur is Conservative-run, with 15/29 councillors to Labour’s 8, the Green’s 2, 3 Independents and one vacancy, and is one of the few councils that elect in halves. Labour should win the vacant seat, and there are five seats up for election which the Conservatives won by less than 10% in 2022 that they should be able to easily pick up.

If Labour do, they would have 14/29 councillors, with the Tories on 11 and the Greens and Independents on 2 each. However, I can see Labour winning at least one of the other four seats the Conservatives are defending, particularly Peverell which the Tories won by 12.4% in 2022. Chuchill (15.4%), Cokeham (18.5%) and Manor (21.2%) may also be taken by the Labour Party — There is potential for some big swings as seen in Brighton and Worthing here.

Overall, the Conservatives are almost certain to lose control, and while not a shoe in for Labour, I think they have a very good shot at gaining the council outright. And even if they don’t, they are likely to form a Labour/Green/Independent adminstration which ousts the Tories from their last standing council in Sussex.

Rushmoor

Aldershot

Based off the towns of Aldershot, renowned for being the home of the British Army and Farnborough, renowned for manufacturing aircraft, Rushmoor is another ‘Blue Wall’ council to watch on May 2nd. It has traditionally been a strongly Conservative area, with the parliamentary seat of Aldershot which covers the seat voting Conservative since 1918, and the council has generally also been a Conservative stronghold, with the party currently holding 22/39 seats on the council, compared to Labour’s 14 and the Liberal Democrats 2, with a vacant seat created by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.

However, this may be about to change.

Labour performed incredibly strongly last year, winning 8/13 seats up for election, gaining 5 seats from the Conservatives and winning 46.8% of the vote across the council, compared to the Conservatives who won just 4 seats and 37.1% of the vote. This was a significant improvement on 2022, where the Conservatives won 8 seats to Labour’s 4. And with the Conservatives now having to defend the 11 seats they held in 2021, it seems highly likely they will lose control of the council, especially with Labour holding a solid lead in the polls.

If last years results hold, the Conservatives are in for a bloodbath — losing 6 seats to Labour and 1 seat to the Liberal Democrats, enough for Labour to take the council outright with 20/39 seats, compared to 16 for the Conservatives and 3 for the Liberal Democrats. However, Labour got very close in two further wards last year, St Johns and West Heath, and I’d expect them to take them this year, giving them an even bigger majority. And even in Cove and Southwood (CON +18.5 % in 2023) and Knellwood (CON +10.2%) where the Conservatives won more comfortably last year, given the big swings that have occured in Rushmoor recently I wouldn’t classify them as safe for the Tories either.

Overall, Labour are very likely to take control of the council for the first time this year. And the parliamentary constituency could well be next!

Gloucester

For the next council the Conservatives are likely to lose, we come to Gloucester.

On a parliamentary level, Gloucester is typically a bellweather seat, voting for the government of the day, and will likely vote Labour at the upcoming general election. However, on a local level, it’s the Liberal Democrats who are likely to take Gloucester Council off the Conservatives.
Currently, the Conservatives hold 21/39 seats on the council, with the Liberal Democrats holding 14 and Labour just 2 seats, with two formerly Conservative Independents also holding two seats. The Liberal Democrats now need 6 further seats to gain the council outright.

And I believe this is doable for the party — they are likely to hold all their seats, including in Abbeymede and Barton and Tredworth where a Conservative and Labour councillors respectively defected to them, and will hope to gain a second seat in Abbeymede and at least one other seat in Barton and Tredworth (where Labour are only standing one candidate).

They will also be looking to win a third seat in Longlevans (where they already have two seats), Quedgley Severn Vale (2 seats), Tuffley (2 seats, LDs nearly won a council place by-election from third place in 2022) and 2 further seats in Westgate (where the LDs won a by-election in 2023). On a good night, they may also look to take Abbeydale (2 Conservative seats), Coney Hill (1 Conservative seat), Grange (2 Conservatives), Kingsway (2 Conservatives) and Quedgeley Fieldcourt (2 seats). There are a lots of opportunities for the Liberal Democrats to make gains, and I would be surprised if they don’t win a majority. Basically, no Conservative seat is safe — while the Conservatives will likely retain some seats, I would be surprised if they got more than 10, and they could potentially go much lower.

Labour will also be looking to make significant gains. They will hope to gain a third seat in Moreland (where their current two councillors are) from the Conservatives, and recover all the seats in Matson, Robinswood & White City they lost to the Conservatives in 2021 (aided by the Liberal Democrats not standing and two of the Conservative candidates becoming Independent). They will also be looking to gain a few seats in Coney Hill Kingsway and Tuffley, although they might be in contention with the Liberal Democrats for these seats. However, they are not in a position to win the council.

Overall, a Liberal Democrat gain is looking very likely, with Labour also making gains and the Conservatives getting hammered.

Gloucester is likely to go Labour at the upcoming General Election. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Liberal Democrat’s efforts are futile — part of Gloucester Council is part of the Tewkesbury constituency, which is a Conservative/Liberal Democrat battle, and a strong result in Gloucester may indicate that Tewkesbury could be on the table for them very soon.

Havant

Based on the Hampshire coast, Havant is typically a rock solid Conservative area. On a parliamentary level, the Havant constituency has been Conservative since its creation in 1983 (with the Conservatives winning by 47.4% in 2019) and Havant Council has been Conservative since 2002. Even now, I think the Conservatives will hold Havant in a General Election.

However, on a local level, with the council being all out, I think Havant Council could be an upset Conservative loss, despite them holding 28/38 seats on the council (with a further 3 seats recently vacated by the Conservatives).

While the Conservatives held their majority last year, they lost 5 seats, including usually safe Conservative areas like Bedhampton (to the LDs) , Emsworth (to the Greens) and the Hayling Island (to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats). If the Conservatives lose all their seats in these areas this year, that’s 12 seats for the opposition and 8 Conservative losses.

However, there were no elections in Leigh Park last year (the northern area of Havant), currently made up of 4 two seat wards(7 Conservative held) which are being merged into 2 three seat wards. The Conservatives will hope to win most of these six seats, but given the Conservatives’ position has worsened since 2022 when these wards were last up, Labour and the Greens are likely to try and win multiple seats in these wards, which if they do would put the council in No Overall Control.

The Conservatives will be hopeful of holding all their seats in Waterlooville, Purbrook and Stakes, which they did last year, and they will hope that’s enough to keep their majority. But it might not be enough, especially if they do happen to lose any seats in these areas.

Overall, it is likely to be very close as to whether the Conservatives retain a majority or whether a Labour/LD/Green coalition takes over. This means it’s a good litmus test of how bad the Conservatives position is.

Broxbourne, Epping Forest, Fareham, Solihull, Walsall

These are the five councils I’m expecting the Conservatives to defend on the 2nd May.

• The Conservatives hold 27/30 seats in Broxbourne. Even if they lost all 9 seats they are defending this year in this Hertfordshire Council on the outskirts of London, they’d still have a majority. Although it will be worth seeing how well the Conservative vote holds up.
• Epping Forest is all out on new boundaries, and while there are a lot of Independents in Loughton and a handful of Liberal Democrats, most seats are solidly Conservative. If the Conservatives are losing Epping Forest, which affluent commuter belt terrain just outside London, they are in serious trouble.
• Fareham is also all outs on new boundaries, but on paper its safe Conservative terrain (home to Suella Braverman, who will probably be leader of the opposition after the election), with the Tories holding 24/31 seats. I expect the Liberal Democrats to do well, winning many seats in places like Fareham Town, Portchester and Stubbington, and Labour and Independents to win a couple seats each, but ultimately I think the Conservatives will hold their majority here, given their strength in the west of the borough. It would certainly be a big blow for the Tories if they did lose it, given its Suella’s terrain and the fact that affluent coastal Hampshire should be solidly Conservative.
• Solihull, an affluent borough neighbouring Birmingham which is also home to Birmingham Airport and Jaguar Land Rover, is unlikely to change hands. The Conservatives hold 29/51 seats in the borough at the moment, and while they are likely to lose a couple of seats (namely Elmdon and Lyndon) to the Liberal Democrats, it is difficult to see them losing more, given that most seats the Conservatives are defending are very strongly Conservative (winning most by over 30% last year). The Liberal Democrats will probably hope to win Olton and St Alphege from formerly Conservative Independents, but they (or the Greens) need to pull off some pretty dramatic upsets elsewhere to deprive the Conservatives of a majority, which I think is unlikely.
• Lastly, Walsall is almost certain to remain under Conservative hands. While Bloxwich, Darlaston, Walsall and Willenhall, may be thought of as Red Wall areas which should make the borough Labour-leaning at the moment, the borough of Walsall also contains the ultra-safe Conservative area of Aldridge Brownhills, which provides 19 Conservative councillors, which makes Walsall a strongly Conservative council. The Conservatives currently hold 37/60 seats in the borough to Labour’s 12 (they lost 6 councillors over Labour’s stance on Gaza), and over the last few years Labour have struggle to cut into that, with the Tories expanding their majority in 2021 and 2022, and losing no seats in 2023.
  Labour will hope to cut into their majority this time, with Birches Leomore, Bloxwich (East and West) , Brownhills, Paddock, Short Heath and Willenhall North being likely targets, and will also hope to pick up Bentley, Blakenall, Palfrey, Rushall Shelfield and St Matthews from Independents. However given that Labour have struggled to make progress over the last few years I don’t see them making the sweeping gains needed for them to deprive the Tories of a majority. Plus, in Bentley and Darlaston North, Palfrey, Pleck, St Matthews, they might have to play defensive, with Independents (some being part of the aforementioned 6) standing which will likely take votes from Labour, and could even gift the Tories some seats if Labour’s vote is split.

Labour

Labour currently has a majority in 43/107 Councils for up election.

Barnsley, Blackburn with Darwen, Bradford, Bury, Calderdale, Cambridge, Chorley, Coventry, Crawley, Exeter, Gateshead, Halton, Ipswich, Kirklees, Knowsley, Leeds, Lincoln, Manchester, Newcastle, North Tyneside, Oldham, Plymouth, Preston, Reading, Rochdale, Rossendale, Rotherham, Salford, Sandwell, Sefton, Southampton, South Tyneside, Stevenage, Sunderland, Swindon, Tameside, Trafford, Wakefield, Warrington, West Lancashire, Wigan, Wolverhampton, Worthing

Labour will defend the vast majority, if not all, of these councils, although not always with increased majorities — while Labour should be able to gain a number of seats from Conservatives, in many of these councils they may lose a handful of seats to the Liberal Democrats/Greens/Independents, maybe even the Tories in some cases, who position themselves as a strong local voice to challenge Labour’s dominance. Nevertheless, with Labour’s brand being very strong at the moment, I’m expecting Labour to overall gain seats and win virtually all the constituencies covered by these councils at the General Election.

However, Labour’s response to the Israel-Palestine conflict has upset some Muslim voters, and with a number of Independents (many formerly Labour members or councillors) standing in protest of Labour’s stance, Labour might see some backlash in some areas — it will be worth watching the results in heavily Muslim Blackburn and Bradford, even if Labour retain control of the council, to see if Labour’s standing in these areas has been significantly damaged and needs to be strengthened before the General Election. In Oldham and Kirklees, where Labour only have narrow majorities (31/60 and 35/69 seats respectively), a couple of Gaza-related losses may be enough to cost Labour their majority on each council. In both councils there are a few Conservative or Independent seats they can take to counter any losses, but there is still a chance Labour could fall short of a majority.

Of particular interest will be Rochdale, where George Galloway (regrettably) gained the Rochdale constituency in February, and his party (the Workers Party of GB) is hoping to expand on that by winning some councillors within the seat. Although Labour have a comfortable majority (45/60 seats) on the council which isn’t under threat, the local elections will be a clear indicator of whether Galloway is maintaining his popularity or whether he is firmly on the way out again. The Workers Party will be hoping to gain at least Central Rochdale (64.7% Muslim), Milkstone and Deeplish (72.4% Muslim) and Kingsway (42.3% Muslim), and will hope for more.

Also, with Labour only holding 31/59 seats on Rotherham Council (last up in 2021), there is also a chance Labour loses their majority if the Conservatives hold up better than expected or there are some surprise Independent gains.

But even if it loses a couple of councils it currently holds, it is all but certain that with the Conservatives imploding nationally and Labour holding a commanding national lead, that Labour will hold more councils than it currently does after the 2nd May. As already established, I believe Adur, Dudley, Harlow, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Redditch and Rushmoor are likely to be Labour gains directly from the Conservatives. But there are also a wide range of councils that are currently in NOC that Labour has a good chance of gaining.

Perhaps most significantly, Hartlepool. This is a name that once filled every Labour member in the country with dread. On the morning of the 7th May, Labour woke up to find that Hartlepool, which had traditionally had been a solidly Labour seat, had flipped to the Conservatives on a 16% swing and a nearly 7K majority. Being Starmer’s first by-election, he reportedly was seriously considering resigning over what was an embarrassing result for Labour after their already disasterous defeat in 2019. In addition, while the Conservatives only fielded one candidate in most wards, they topped the poll in most wards, and have been able to run the council in coalition with Independents for the last three years.

Three years on, and Keir Starmer has managed to turn the ship around (helped by the dysfunctional Conservatives). With a massive poll lead and 7 by-elections gains under his belt, few doubt the same man on the verge of quitting over Hartlepool will be Prime Minister later this year.

And Hartlepool looks set to revert the Labour Party. In last years local elections, Labour won 9/12 seats up for election, with 5 Labour gains, and was tantalisingly close to gaining the council — they won 18/36 seats on the council, and were just 2 votes off gaining a 6th ward which would have given them a majority.

Now, Labour hold 17/36 seats on the council (after one of their councillors quit the party), with 12 Conservatives and 7 Independents. Now, with all the councillors who topped the poll in 2021 up (The Conservatives are defending 7 seats, with Independents defending 3 and Labour defending just two) and Labour’s strong performance last year, it would be a shock if Labour didn’t gain Hartlepool. Labour should have a strong chance of gaining 8 seats, with the Conservatives holding Rural West and Independents holding Seaton.

This is one council where it is worth watching Reform UK. They got 7.5% across the council last year (albeit without standing in two wards), and with Hartlepool being a prime target for them (the Brexit Party got 25.8% here in 2019, and party leader Richard Tice is the candidate for Hartlepool at the next GE), they will be looking to significantly improve on this, and are standing in every ward this time.

From a seat Labour lost in a by-election, let’s move onto a seat where Labour won in a by-election. In October 2023, Labour flipped the previously safe Conservative seat of Tamworth, overturning a 42.6% Majority with a 23.9% swing, after the resignation of disgraced MP Chris Pincher (you can read more about Tamworth here, although I ultimately overestimated Labour there is a still a lot of detailed context about the seat). Labour’s new MP Sarah Edwards will now be looking to retain the seat at the next General Election.

Currently, the council is in No Overall Control, after a string of Conservative resignations and Labour’s strong performance last year (winning 8/10 seats, an early indicator of what was to come), the Conservatives now hold 14/30 seats, compared to 9 for Labour and 7 Independents. However, the 10 seats up this time were last up in 2021, a very strong Conservative year where they won all 10 seats, although 3 have since quit the party. This means Labour should be on course for a lot of gains, and will hope to take control the council.

Labour will be looking to build on their by-election gain by winning all the seats they did last year (Amington, Belgrave, Bolehall, Castle, Glascote, Merican, Spital and Wilncote) and will hope to take Stonydelph (Conservatives won by just 2.7% last year) and Trinity (Conservatives won by 9.5%) as well. They need 7 seats for a majority, and I think there is a good chance they achieve this. Labour will hope to win Tamworth Council comfortably this year, given the constituency of Tamworth also contains rural areas of Lichfield which make the seat more Conservative, but if they do I’d say they are well placed to retain Tamworth, especially if Reform UK do well.

In nearby Cannock Chase, Labour will be looking to pull off a similarly spectacular gain. Cannock Chase has been trending away from Labour for a while — in the 2019 General Election, the Conservatives won by 42.9%. However, on a local level, Labour did very well last year — they led the Conservatives by 12.8%, with a lot of Green votes to squeeze (16.2%), demonstrating that Labour might be on course win Cannock Chase on parliamentary level again. This year, the whole council is up on new boundaries (with the number of councillors being reduced from 41 to 36) and Labour will be looking at an outright majority (both the Conservatives and Labour are defending 18 seats each)

Labour should be able to rely on 12 seats in Brereton and Ravenshill, Chadsmoor, Hednesford Green Heath and Norton Canes. They will hope to win all three seats in Heath Hayes East and Wimbury, where they already have two seats, and with favourable boundary changes, they will also hope to win all three seats in the new ‘Western Springs’ ward (with most of the former Hagley ward, which Labour won by 41.8% last year, being added to the marginal Western Springs ward, which the Tories won by 3% last year), and in ‘Hawks Green with Rumer Hill’ (where Hawks Green, which the Tories won by 13.3% last year is expanded into Labour voting Cannock East and South)

They will aspire to win seats in Cannock Longford and Bridgtown (based off Cannock South, where Labour won by 8% last year but BCs add parts of Cannock West, where the Tories won by 25.9%) and Cannock Park and Old Fallow (based off Cannock West, but BCs add parts of heavily Labour Cannock East and North). I’m expecting these wards to split between Conservatives and Labour, although on a good night Labour might be able to sweep them all.

They will also hope to hold their two seats in the new Hednesford Pye Green and their seat in Etching Hill and the Heath, although they may be vulnrable to the Greens and Conservatives respectively.

The Conservatives will hope to hold some seats in Cannock Longford and Bridgtown, Cannock Park and Old Fallow (mostly based off Cannock West,where they won by 25.9% last year, so this will likely be their best ward), Etching Hill and the Hythe, Hawks Green and Rumer Hill, Heath Hayes East and Wimbury and possibly Western Springs. However, I do not think they have improved from last year, and are in for heavy losses.

The Greens should comfortably win Hednesford Hills and Rawnsley, and hope to win at least one seat in Hednesford Pye Green, and maybe pick up some seats from Labour there as well.

Overall, after a strong result last year and many pick up opportunities, I believe Labour will gain at least 19/36 seats needed to take outright control of Cannock Chase this year.

Thurrock

Perhaps one the biggest prizes for Labour will be Thurrock, an industrial area to the North of the River Thames on the edge of Essex. Traditonally a Labour inclined area, the Conservatives gained both Thurrock and South Basildon and East Thurrock in 2010 and held them both comfortably in 2019. On a local level, Thurrock has been Conservative run since 2016, and had a Conservative majority until earlier this year when two Conservative councillors quit the party. The Conservatives currently hold 23/49 seats to Labour’s 19 with 7 Independents.

However, the Conservatives have not run the council well — in December 2022, the council declared itself bankrupt, with a £469 million deficit and issued a Section 114 notice, meaning the council can’t spend any more money unless its for essential services. The Conservatives were punished for this in 2023, winning 4 seats whilst Labour won 9 seats, gaining 5 seats and leading the Conservatives by 12.7%. Then, the Conservatives’ majority was large enough to weather the backlash, but this year, especially with them defending from the high watermark of 2021, they might not be so lucky.

If last years results are repeated, Labour will gain 4 seats from the Conservatives and 1 from a formerly Conservative Independent , while the Tories lose a further two to Indpendents. This would mean Labour falls just short of a majority, 24/49, with the Tories on 17 and Independents on 9. However, with Labour targeting the area hard and with a strong position in the polls, I think Labour will narrowly win majority, taking one or more of Aveley and Uplands, Ockendon or maybe Little Thurrock Blackshots (Conservative +22.6% in 2022, but big swings can happen post bankruptcy and with the polls moving against the Conservatives).

Overall, suspect Labour will gain the council outright this time, and will hope to expand their majority in 2025, when the council is entirely up on new boundaries and will move to electing once every four years

Hyndburn

Another important council will be Hyndburn, based in the heart of the Red Wall, and containing the towns of Accrington, Clayton-Le-Moors, Great Harwood, Oswaldtwistle and Rishton.

Currently, Hyndburn is in No Overall Control, with the Conservatives and Labour having 16 seats each, with 2 Greens and 1 Independents, although the Conservatives are running the council after being authorised by the Greens and the Independent. However, with Labour only being two seats short of a majority, they will be hoping to take control the council outright.

And there appears to be many opportunities for them to gain seats. Labour will hope to take both seats off the Greens — Labour won Barnfield last year, and won Peel by 43.9% in 2022 — both of whom are standing down. Additionally, they will hope to take seats in Altham and Rishton, both seats Labour won last year but the Tories are defending this year, and will hope to take the marginal Conservative seats of Baxenden, Church and St Andrews. On a good night, they might take St Oswalds. With so many opportunities to gain seats, even if Labour underperform they should take the council outright.

One sore spot for Labour might be the Central ward, which the Conservatives unusually managed to gain from them last year, and this year there is a Workers Party candidate standing, which in a ward that is 66% Muslim may be able to get elected, or at least take votes from Labour to stop them from winning. But even with a loss there, Labour should still be able to take control of the council.

Milton Keynes

One of the UK’s most iconic new towns and bellwethers, Labour will be really hoping for an outright majority in Milton Keynes for the first time since 1999. With three target constituencies (Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes Central and Buckingham and Bletchley) within the council area, winning a majority would demonstrate they are on course to flip all three later in the year.

Currently, Labour hold 27/57 seats, two seats short of a majority, with the Conservatives on 14 and the Liberal Democrats on 16, and run the council in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, who they have typically had an non-aggression pact with. However, Labour have recently been performing very strongly — they took the former Conservative strongholds of Danesborough and Walton and Olney last year — and with the Conservatives defending seats from 2021, they will be confident of gaining the two seats they need for an outright majority.

There are five seats where the Conservatives are defending, but Labour won in 2023 — Bletchley Park, Bletchley West, Danesborough and Walton, Olney and Stantonbury. Granted, Labour only won most of these narrowly last year, but with the electoral climate getting worse for the Conservatives, Labour will be hoping to gain all five — and even if they fell short in a couple, they’d still gain a majority. They will also be looking to gain a seat in Tattenhoe, which they lost by 5.1% last year, but the elected Conservative councillor defected to Labour soon after, and Labour will hope his support trickles down to a Labour gain now.

As for the Liberal Democrats, while they may not be in a position to run the council anymore, they should gain seats from the Conservatives and comfortably consolidate themselves as the main opposition to Labour. They will aim to gain Campbell Park and Old Woughton (LD +18.8% in 2023) and Shenley Brook End (LD +0.1% in 2023 — however, last year’s Conservative candidate Saleea Raja is now running for the Liberal Democrats in this ward, and given her strong performance last year she should win comfortably this year). On a good night, they may even take a seat in Newton Pagnell North and Hanslope (CON +12.7% in 2023), with the LDs already holding three seats in Newton Pagnell South.

As for the Tories, they might be left with as few as 5 seats across the council on a really bad night.

Overall, its looks promising for Labour, and I believe Labour will gain the council outright this year.

Surprise Gains?

These are councils I don’t expect Labour to gain a majority on, but on a good night might do.

Bolton — Labour currently have 27/60 seats on Bolton Council, after all outs last year, and need just four more for a majority. This is not impossible — Labour topped the poll in Hulton and Westhoughton South last year, and if Labour gains the third seat in both wards that gives them two more councillors. Additionally , there is a double vacancy in Horwich North (where Labour were just 0.6% short of a seat last year), and taking both seats in addition to the two seats mentioned above would give Labour a majority. Labour might even pull up a surprise win in a couple of other wards, especially with popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham up for election and Reform UK being organised within the borough, standing candidates in every ward.

However, Labour may also have some difficult defences. In Astley Bridge and Little Lever and Darcy Lever, Labour won the third seat in these wards, despite the Conservatives topping the poll, and these wards remain vulnerable to the Conservatives. Secondly in Farnworth South and Kearsley, Labour are defending a seat despite strong Independent parties within the ward. Thirdly, Labour were run reasonably close by the Conservatives last year in Great Lever, Halliwell and Rumworth, all of which have big Muslim populations who may be upset with Labour over Gaza (the Workers Party are running in Hulton, Rumworth and Queens Park and Central). While Labour are unlikely to lose any of these wards, it is a distinct possibility, and may foil any hope they have of a majority.

Overall, everything needs to go right for Labour to get a majority, and chances are not everything will. While Labour will likely clearly remain the largest party and should keep control of the borough, they are unlikely to win an outright majority

Worcester — Labour currently have 13/35 seats in Worcester, with the Greens on 11, the Conservative on 7 and the Liberal Democrats on four, and need 18 for a majority, and Labour run the council in coalition with the Greens
Last year was a bloodbath for the Conservatives — losing all 7 seats they were defending, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all gaining seats. With things unlikely to improve for the Conservatives any time soon, its safe to say most, if not all, of the remaining Conservatives are on the way out this year, with the whole council up for election on new boundaries.

The new boundaries are very favourable to Labour — the former ‘Gorse Hill’ ward, where the Tories currently have two councillors, is being split between the more Labour-inclined Rainbow Hill and Warndon wards (the latter becoming Warndon and Elbury Park); the former three member, Labour-inclined Cathedral ward is being split into 2 two seat wards (Cathedral and Fort Royal), and the former three seat St John wards (where Labour got 70% in last year) is being split into 2 two seat wards (St John’s and Dines Green and Grove Farm). By winning all these wards alongside Nunnery (Labour won by 30.2% here in a by-election last summer), this would give them 16 seats.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats will probably win 5 seats (in the Claines and St Nicholas wards), while the Greens will probably win 12 seats in the areas they won comfortably when last up (Arboretum, Battenhall, Leopard Hill, St Clement, St Peter Parish and St Stephen). However, neither party has much strength outside these areas, meaning I doubt they make further progress. The Tories will lose all their remaining councillors within these areas

Ultimately, it comes down to the ‘Lower Wick and Pitmason’ ward. This is largely the former Bedwardine ward, a typically Conservative ward although Labour narrowly won the ward last year. However, it loses some territory to the redrawn St John’s ward, which probably makes the ward more Conservative. If Labour win both wards here, they’ve got a majority, if they don’t, they haven’t. This ward is probably the only place the Conservatives’ have any chance of winning, and will likely be wiped off the council if they lose.

Labour getting an outright majority would be a significant victory for them, given Worcester is a classic bellweather area that always goes with the government, although if the Tories don’t improve soon in Worcester they might struggle to ever win it back.

Liberal Democrats

While the Liberal Democrats only have 15 MPs at the moment (although they are forcast to win a lot more at the moment with the Conservatives collapsing), they are a formidable force on a local level, holding nearly 3,000 councillors and lead 67 councils across the UK. They are defending 10 councils this year — Cheltenham, Eastleigh, Gosport, Hull, Mole Valley, St Albans, Three Rivers, Watford, Winchester, Woking, and I believe they will hold all of them comfortably, and probably gain seats in most of them.

They are likely to gain quite a few councillors off voters disillusioned with the Conservatives, although they may also take quite a few seats off Labour, especially in areas where Labour are already dominant and voters feel Labour takes them for granted. They will also hope to gain a few councils themselves — as covered before, Dorset is likely to be their biggest prize if they manage to flip it, and Gloucester is also a likely gain, but there are four more councils where the Liberal Democrats have a real shot at flipping.

Brentwood

Brentwood, based in the Essex commuter belt, is typically rock hard Conservative on a parliamentary level, with the Conservatives winning the Brentwood and Ongar constituency by a massive 54.9% over Labour in 2019, which indicates that it is unlikely to change hands even now.
However, on a local level the Liberal Democrats have build up a solid base of councillors — 17/39 — one less than the Conservatives on 18, alongside two Labour councillors. The Liberal Democrats deprived the Conservatives of a majority last year, and now run the council in coalition with Labour. This year, they will hope to finish the job and get an outright majority, with the council all out on new boundaries (although most wards are similar to their current formation)

And this should be a pretty easy achievement for them. Just by taking a third seat in Brentwood West (Tories won in 2021, but LDs won by 39% in 2023), Ingatestone, Fryerning & Mountnessing (LDs won by 9.4% in 2023), Shenfield (LDs won by 10.3% in 2023) and two more seats in Hutton East (LDs won by 13.6% in 2023, boundary changes add a lot of the abolished and Conservative-inclined Hutton Central, but they still should be able to pick up three seats here), in addition to holding three seats in Brentwood North, Pilgrims Heath and Warley, that would give them 21/39 seats, an outright majority. They will also hope to hold a seat in South Weald, which they won by 33.7% last year but is being combined with heavily Conservative Brizes and Doddinghurst, and they perhaps hope to gain more councillors in the new Brizes, Stondon Massey and South Weald ward.
Meanwhile, Labour will likely win three seats in Brentwood South, but win nothing else.

The Conservatives will hold Brentwood and Ongar in a General Election (although probably with a massively reduced majority), but a win here would demonstrate the Liberal Democrats’ continued strength in the commuter belt.

Elmbridge

Talking about the commuter belt, the Liberal Democrats will also be hopeful of winning control of Elmbridge, a borough in affluent, commuter belt Surrey which neighbours Kingston and Richmond, their London heartlands.
The borough is mostly covered by the Esher and Walton constituency, where the Liberal Democrats slashed then Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab’s majority from 38.9% (Over Labour) to just 4.4%, and the Liberal Democrats will hope to finish the job this time (albeit without Raab, who’s standing down), with gaining Elmbridge Council a key sign they are on course to do so. The Liberal Democrats hold 20/48 seats currently, with the remaining seats held by 16 Independents (who they run the council with) and 12 Conservatives, and they need 5 seats for a majority.

And they should be able to do this. The Liberal Democrats won Cobham, Hersham Village and all three seats in Walton-On-Thames last year, and if they repeat this they will gain 5 seats and a majority. On a good night, they may also be able to flip Molesey West (where the Independents beat them by 10.5% last year) and Oatlands and Burwood Park (where the Conservatives won by 11% last year).

If they manage to gain control of the council, they will be confident if gaining Esher and Walton at the General Election.

Wokingham

In nearby Berkshire, the Liberal Democrats will be vying for overall control of Wokingham Council, another affluent commuter belt area where the Liberal Democrats have recently made huge strides — in the Wokingham constituency, they slashed the Conservative majority from 31.5% (Over Labour) to 11.9% over them in 2019. If the Liberal Democrats win a majority here, it would be a strong sign they are on course to finish the job. The borough also contains parts of suburban Reading, which after the next General Election will form part of the new ‘Earley and Woodley’ seat, which Labour are targeting and therefore will also want to see gains within the borough.

The whole council is up on new boundaries, and I believe the Liberal Democrats will win an outright majority — they will sweep up most of the seats in Wokingham town centre, while also winning areas like Arborfield, Finchampstead, Twyford, Winnersh and some seats within Earley, such as Hawkedon and Hillside. The Liberal Democrats need 28/54 seats for a majority, and I believe they will win around 33, comfortably enough for a majority.

I also think Labour will make gains, winning areas like Norreys in north east Wokingham, Shinfield and parts of Woodley like Bulmershe and Loddon, however, they are not on course to seriously threaten the Liberal Democrats’ chance of a majority. As for the Conservatives, they are probably going to lose around half of the 22 seats they are defending.

A strong showing for the Liberal Democrats here would bode well for their chances of gaining Wokingham at the next General Election.

Stockport

The Liberal Democrats aren’t just a party of the South. They will also be looking to gain seats in many Northern councils, with Stockport their best chance of a gain in the north this year

After boundary changes, the borough of Stockport will contain three entire parliamentary seats — Stockport, Cheadle and Hazel Grove. While Stockport is a safe Labour seat which elects mostly Labour councillors, Cheadle and Hazel Grove are affluent seats in suburban Manchester, and have become a hotbed for the Liberal Democrats — they fell just 4.2% short in Cheadle at the last election, and 10% short in Hazel Grove, and both seats are prime targets for the Liberal Democrats at the general election.

Currently, the Liberal Democrats run Stockport Council with 29/63 seats, just short of a majority, with Labour holding 24 seats, the Greens holding 3 and Independents holding 7 (two Residents Groups in Edgeley and Heald Green, and one former LD councillor). Last year, when Stockport was all out, the Liberal Democrats managed to defeat all the Conservative councillors within the council, but narrowly fell short of a majority (by just 59 votes) after Labour managed to win some councillors in Cheadle and Hazel Grove, notably in Bredbury and Woodley, Cheadle North and East Manor and Offerton. This year, they will be hoping to make a further three gains and gain a majority on the council.

The four wards listed above are the ones to watch. Unlike with Labour/Conservative fights (where as a result of the electoral climate Labour generally has the upper hand), it is difficult to know whether the mood has shifted towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats locally since last year. However, Labour are defending all four key seats, and on balance the Liberal Democrats are likely to gain at least one seat (most likely Offerton, where they topped the ballot last year and were only 0.3% off a second seat). However, it is tossup as to whether the Liberal Democrats win the three seats they need to get an overall majority or not.

I have heard that the Liberal Democrats are also targeting Heald Green this year, held by a Localist Party, but given the ‘Heald Green Ratepayers’ have held all the councillors in the ward for decades, I’m sceptical that the Liberal Democrats will win.

Whatever the result, the Liberal Democrats are likely to continue to run Stockport Council, and with the Conservatives locked out of the borough on a local level, I’d be surprised if they don’t also lock the Conservatives out of the borough on a parliamentary level as well.

Green Party

While the Greens only hold one parliamentary seat (Brighton Pavillion), they are a growing force on a local level, holding 744 Councillors. These come from a range of areas — from urban, Labour-inclined areas from voters who are disillusioned with the Labour Party nationally and/or locally, and want an opposing voice to Labour’s typical dominance in these areas, and from rural, typically Conservative areas, such as Mid Suffolk where they gained their first majority council last year. This year, they will want to make further gains. While in most councils they will only win a few seats, if any, they may still be able to run the council in coalition in other parties.

However, there are two councils I think the Greens could gain this year.

Bristol will be their main target this year, given that Green Deputy Leader Carla Denyer is hoping to gain Bristol Central at the General Election later this year, and will hope strong support in the local elections will indicate she is on course to do so. Currently, the Greens hold 24/70 seats, with Labour on 23, the Conservatives on 14, the Liberal Democrats on 5 and 4 Independents (one former Labour, one former Green, two former Liberal Democrats). Although they are the largest party, Labour run the council under Marvin Rees, the directly elected Mayor of Bristol, however his position is being abolished, and whoever wins the most seats is likely to be in a position to run the council, and the Greens will hope thats them.

The Greens increased their vote share by 11.9% in 2021 and gained 13 seats, and they will hope to repeat this this year to gain an outright majority, or at least get close to it, and demonstrate a very strong performance in the wards within the ‘Bristol Central’ constituency (where they already hold 11/14 seats), indicating they can flip it in a General Election. They will be hoping to win the remaining three seats in Bristol Central, as well as gaining seats elsewhere in the city. Bedminister, Eastville and Lawrence Hill, where they already hold 1/2 councillors look like obvious targets, and may also look to take seats in Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston, Filwood, Horfield, Knowle, Southmead, St George’s Central, St George’s West, all areas where the Greens got above 20% in 2021.

Labour, on the other hand, will hope to retain most, if not all, of their seats and possibly hope to gain some seats from the Greens, potentially by focusing on portraying the Greens as resistant to house building. However, I doubt Labour will be able to gain from the Greens to a significant degree, given there is no indication that the Green vote is declining. Instead, their successes are likely to come from taking down Conservative seats in areas like Avonmouth, Bishopsworth, Frome Vale, Henbury and Brentry and Stockwood, where the Greens are weak.

The Liberal Democrats are likely to hold their current wards (Hengrove and Whitchurch Park and Brislington West), and perhaps take some seats off the Conservatives in Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze.

Ulimately, I think both Labour and the Greens will make gains, and will win roughly the same number of seats each, and its difficult to say who will ultimately run Bristol Council. However, there is a chance that either party ends up with a clear lead in seats and potentially a council majority, which for the Greens would be a strong indicator they have the potential to gain Bristol Central — how they perform relative to 2021 will be interesting to see (whilst the Greens typically underperform in General Elections, a potential 30%+ lead over Labour within the seat would make Labour nervous).

The second place I think the Greens could gain is Stroud.

On a parliamentary level, Stroud is a marginal seat which the Conservatives gained from Labour by 5.8% in 2019 after losing it in 2017. In 2021 Local Elections, the Conservatives won 20 seats to Labour’s 15, the Green’s 13 and the Liberal Democrat’s 3, and the latter three parties agreed to run the council as a coalition led by Labour’s Doina Cornell
However, since then, Labour have self-immolated in Stroud. It started when Labour blocked Cornell from running for Stroud at the General Election after concerns about her social media posts, which led to her and two other councillors resigning from the party. Labour then demanded that Labour councillors don’t take part in a coalition with Cornell in it, leading to more resignations, plus more councillors have quit over Keir Starmer’s leadership (especially over the party’s stance on Gaza). At this point in time, Labour only have 4 councillors in the borough, and with the local party in so much disarray I can’t see Labour making many gains.

This provides an opening for the Green Party, who currently run Stroud Council alongside the formerly Labour Independents. And I think the Greens, who currently have 14 seats, have a very strong chance of gaining an outright majority.

Most of the 11 Independents are standing down, including Doina Cornell, and I think many of their seats will go to the Green Party, who will gain seats in wards like Dursley, Nailsworth, Stonehouse and numerous seats in the town of Stroud from formerly Labour Independents (who are endorsing the Greens). Additionally, there are many rural wards which the Greens can gain from the Conservatives, including in Hardwicke, Minchinhampton, Painswick and Upton and The Stanleys, as well as defeating the sole Conservative councillors in Dursley and Stonehouse. I believe the Greens will gain at least a dozen seats, perhaps up to 17–18 on a good night, enough for a majority.

Labour might be able to defend the seats they currently jold and pick up a handful of seats from the Conservatives or Independents, such as in Cainscross, Rodborough or in parts of the town of Stroud, but I don’t believe they will do well this time, although Labour should be able to pick up the Stroud constituency at the General Election.

Other Councils

Aside from the councils mentioned above, I think the following councils will remain in No Overall Control. I won’t review them in detail, otherwise you’d be here all day, but I’ll summarise.

• Sheffield — Labour currently has 29/84 seats, after a series of resignations after the national party forced the former council leader Terry Cox to resign. Labour should be able to win some of these seats back, take Stockbridge and Upper Don from the Conservatives, take Nether Edge and Sharrow and Walkley from the Greens and potentially defeat some Liberal Democrats, but they are under threat from the Liberal Democrats in a couple of seats, and are almost certainly not gaining 14 seats they need for a majority. If you want to learn more, this is an extremely good article.
• In Burnley, Hastings, Norwich, Oxford and Pendle, Labour have recently experienced mass resigations (in Pendle’s case losing all their councillors), largely as a result of Labour’s position on Gaza but also unhappiness with the local Labour group in many councils. In Burnley and Pendle the Independents are in coalition with the LDs (+Greens in Burnley) and I’m expecting this to be the case after the local elections. Labour will probably make gains in Hastings, Norwich and Oxford, and possibly gain a majority back on Norwich and Oxford, but I’m unsure how popular these Independents are, or how a sense of disarray may harm Labour’s chance more broadly, so I’m not going to actively predict any council gains here.
• Peterborough, Rugby and Southend are currently Conservative-run councils, albeit without a majority, but I expect major losses to Labour in all of these, and Labour will probably be in a position to run the council after the locals.
• In North Hertfordshire, Welwyn Hatfield and West Oxfordshire, I expect the current Labour/LD coalition (+the Greens in West Oxfordshire) to continue, with further losses to the Conservatives. After further losses to the Conservatives in Cherwell, I’m expecting an anti-Conservative coalition to be formed there as well
• In Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells, both all outs on new boundaries, I’m expecting significant Conservative losses with the Liberal Democrats to end up as the largest party in both, and them to form a coalition with Labour/Greens.
• Colchester and Portsmouth are likely to remain a Liberal Democrat minority council, with the Conservatives losing seats and Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Independents likely to gain or hold level.
• In Basingstoke and Deane and Hart, the LD/IND coalition is likely to continue, although Labour will make significant gains and the Tories significant losses in Basingstoke.
• In Reigate, Rochford and Runnymede, the Conservatives are likely to lose more seats and LD/GRE/IND coalitions are likely to be formed (perhaps with Labour in Runnymede).
• Castle Point and Tandridge are likely to remain an Independent-run councils.

Overall Council Predictions

In short, like most people are expecting, this is going to be a bloodbath for the Conservatives, who are on course to lose more than half the councils they are defending and lose seats in most councils. I think that out of the 107 councils up for election, they will be very lucky to run more than 10 afterwards. Meanwhile, Labour are likely to pick up councils in many important areas where Labour were once seen as a lost cause — Cannock, Dudley, Harlow, Hartlepool, Nuneaton, Redditch to name just a few — while the Liberal Democrats will further demonstrate their strength in affluent areas like Dorset and Wokingham. The Greens are likely to also celebrate winning a second majority council.

The Conservatives broadly recognise this, even if they don’t agree with my analysis. But they will hope the mayoral elections will save them

In total, there will be 11 Mayoral Elections this year. Of these, 3 (East Midlands, North East and York and North Yorkshire) are new positions. Of the existing eight, six of them are Labour held — with Sadiq Khan in London, Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester, Steve Rotherham in the Liverpool City Region, Oliver Coppard in South Yorkshire, Tracy Brabin in West Yorkshire, and Paul Dennett in Salford.

Labour should easily hold Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and Salford.

While some Conservatives hope dissatisfaction with Sadiq Khan over crime, housing and his expanded ULEZ zone will make the race uncomfortably close for Sadiq Khan, I think this is wishful thinking, especially given his strong record of achievement, his ambitious plans for London and Susan Hall being a poor idological fit for London. I ultimately expect Sadiq Khan will win by around 17%, in line with Labour’s performance in the 2022 Local Elections, where Labour led the Conservatives by 16.7% Londonwide.

As for the London Assembly, Labour are likely to hold all their constituency members, and hope to flip West Central (Labour lost by 1.6% last time), South West (where they lost by 5.6%, although the LDs came second and will want to gain their first constituency member here as well) and possibly Havering and Redbridge (9.1%) and Croydon and Sutton (10.1%). On the London-wide ballot, it could well be 2 Labour, 4 Conservative, 3 Green and 2 Liberal Democrats again, although Labour might lose one seat to the Conservatives/Greens if they do well in the constituency results. Overall, the London Assembly will remain Labour-led.

In the North East, which includes Durham, Gateshead, Newcastle, Northumberland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside and Sunderland, it may turn out to be a three way race between Labour’s Kim McGuiness, the Conservatives’ Guy Renner-Thompson and Jamie Driscoll, who is running as an Independent. Driscoll was formerly the Labour Mayor for North of Tyne (Covering Newcastle, Northumberland and North Tyneside), but was blocked from standing for the new North East Mayoralty by Labour HQ, over his appearance with expelled Labour member Ken Loach, and subsequently quit the party and is running as an Independent. He was a well-regarded mayor, however I’m sceptical he can win, given that the new North East Mayoralty includes regions he has not previous represented, and Labour’s brand is strong in the North East, and believe Kim McGuiness, formerly Northumberland Police and Crime Commissioner, will win, albeit with Driscoll putting in a formidable performance.

In the East Midlands Mayoralty. which covers the regions of Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire, it is a race between Claire Ward, the former Labour MP for Watford who is currently chair of Sherwood Forest Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, and Ben Bradley, currently the MP for Mansfield. However, all the boroughs covering the region were up for election last year and Labour dominated amongst them — they gained a majority on Amber Valley, Broxstowe, Erewash, High Peak, Mansfield, North East Derbyshire, South Derbyshire, whilst retaining majorities in Bolsover, Chesterfield, Gedling and Nottingham and became the largest party in Derby, allowing them to run the council. It is difficult to see how the Conservatives win this new sea of red.

In Yorks and North Yorkshire, which covers Craven, Hambleton, Harrogate, Richmond, Ryedale, Scarborough, Selby and York, it will be a race between the Conservatives’ Keane Duncan and Labour’s David Skaith. This is often viewed as an area the Conservatives should be winning — the area contains some of the safest Conservative areas in the country, including Richmond and Northallerton, the constituency of Rishi Sunak, who won his seat by 27,000 votes in 2019. However, I think Labour have a good chance at winning the mayoralty.

The Conservatives won North Yorkshire Council by 40,103 votes over Labour in 2022. That sounds like a big lead (it is, the Conservatives got 41.2% of the vote to Labour’s 17.3%), but there was also 27,317 Liberal Democrat votes and 16,497 Green votes, many of which could be persuaded to vote Labour. Additionally, since 2022 the Conservatives have fallen further in the polls (they are currently 20% behind in the polls, whereas they were only 6% behind in 2022), and would not win North Yorkshire Council by anywhere near that much over Labour now — Labour are likely to do much better in Selby (where they gained the parliamentary seat in a by-election last year) and Scarborough and Whitby , which is a key Labour target for the next general election.

Meanwhile in 2023, in the York Council Elections, where Labour gained a majority on the council, they led the Conservatives by 37,804 votes — with 41,080 Liberal Democrat and 16,497 Green votes that could be persuaded to vote Labour. Together, this indicates that York should be able to provide more than enough Labour votes for Labour to be able to win the mayoralty (even without significant levels of tactical voting) and cause a symbolic embarassment for Rishi Sunak.

The Liberal Democrats are unlikely to win here, with them being behind Labour in both the 2022 North Yorkshire Local Elections and the 2023 York Local Elections, but might be able to get a respectable share of the vote (+25%) which they could potentially build on in the future. But for now, this looks like a Labour gain.

Now for the big two….

Ben Houchen in Tees Valley and Andy Street in the West Midlands.

Both have been in office since 2017, re-elected with increased majorities in 2021, and have tended to overperform the Conservative Party in their respective regions. However, with the Conservatives in dire straits nationally, seemingly doomed to lose the incoming General Election, in large part because of their perceived failure to level up regions like Tees Valley and the West Midlands, there is a chance that Labour can take down one of or both of these mayors, and argue that only a Labour Mayor working with an incoming Labour government can deliver the change those areas need.

If both of them survive, that would be a massive relief to Rishi Sunak, and give him optimism about the General Election. If both of them fall, Rishi Sunak will be blamed, and the knives will be out within the Conservative Party. So potentially very high stakes.

But how likely is this?

Ben Houchen won 72.8% in 2021, seemingly a rock solid victory which Labour could only dream of overturning. However, there is widespread distrust of the Conservatives to level up the area, with high levels of poverty, poor transport links and local high streets struggling (not saying these are all Houchen’s fault, but the people of Teeside are not happy with the status quo). Houchen was key to championing ‘Teesworks’, a multi-million pound freeport at the former Redcar steelworks thought to have the potential to bring billions of pounds to the area, however, the benefits of the site are in doubt, after 90% of shares were transferred to private partners and an Independent review of Teesworks, while finding no evidence of cronyism or corruption, found taxpayer are not being guaranteed value for money or transparency. There is pressure on the National Audit Office to investigate the project, something Labour candidate Chris McEwan is committed to commissioning. Steve Gibson, the Chairman of Middlesborough FC, has recently accused Houchen of “giving away our children’s future” and has endorsed McEwan.

Chris McEwan, is a long time councillor in Darlington, and has worked for the NHS for over 30 years.

Both national and local events have taken a hit on Houchen’s brand, and recent polling by Redfield Wilton showed the race tied between Houchen and McEwan, 47%-47% each. The 2023 Local Results across the region had Labour ahead 36.3% to 31.7% for the Conservatives (The Greens are also not standing, and the 5.9% they got will likely transfer mostly to Labour in the Mayoral Election), but this is not a massive lead, and was a significant number of undecided voters the race seems too close to call. The Conservative brand is clearly weak here, and Houchen will need to overperform his party by a lot to win, but with his landslide win in 2021 he has shown he can do it. Question is, can he do it again?

McEwan is likely to win Middlesborough and Hartlepool, whilst Houchen needs Darlington, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton to win — he is likely to win Stockton, where the Conservatives performed well at the locals last year, but Darlington (where McEwan is a councillor) and Redcar (where Teesworks is based) may be more tricky. Houchen retaining his position, even if narrowly, will be a big boost to Sunak, and a loss would be a devastating blow to him.

Overall, I regard the race as a complete tossup

Andy Street won more modestly, by 9% on the first round (and with the Conservatives scrapping STV for Mayoral Elections, this is now all that matters). Street faces many of the same challenges Houchen faces — widespread distrust of the Conservatives to level up the area, with high levels of poverty, poor transport links and local high streets struggling (again, not saying these are all Street’s fault, but the people of Teeside are not happy with the status quo). Street, a former managing director of John Lewis, has tried to distance himself from the Conservatives, but he has often failed to do so — notably, he remained loyal to Sunak despite him cancelling HS2 Phase 2, which he described as a “a once in a lifetime opportunity to level up”

Meanwhile, his opponent Richard Parker is a former accountant at PwC, who has led the team that set up the West Midlands Combined Authority which has brought £1Bn to the West Midlands.

Two polls conducted so far show a close race, albeit both with Parker ahead — with Savanta showing him 3% ahead and Redfield Wilton showing him 6% ahead. Both polls show Street outperforming his party (Labour have a 20% lead in the West Midlands with RedfieldWilton, and 28% one with Savanta), but not quite by enough to save him. However, given most councils within the region elect simultaneously with the mayoral race (with the exception of Birmingham), it is easier to analyse

In 2021, Street outperformed his party’s performance over Labour in the concurrent local elections by an average of 10%.

If you applied the same ‘Premium’ onto last years local election results, there would be a double digit swing towards Richard Parker in all six councils that hold council elections simultaneously, but assuming the same turnouts as 2021, Street still leads overall by around 10.5K, with Parker’s leads in Coventry, Sandwell and Wolverhampton (which voted for Street in 2021) being insufficient to overcome Street’s leads in Dudley, Solihull and Walsall, despite big shifts to Labour (25.1% in Dudley), particularly in Solihull where Street would lead by nearly 21.5K votes.

Labour will hope to strength their performance relative to 2023 in the council elections, which would inevitably help Parker and potentially be enough to eliminate Street’s modest lead. However, I believe the borough margins predicted below are realistic estimates of what to expect, and ultimately it will be down to Birmingham that decides who wins the election.

On paper, this ought to be good for Parker. Labour won Birmingham by 22,692 votes (11.3%) in 2021, and with the electoral climate getting worse for the Conservatives since then, he should be able to rack up even more votes in the borough and therefore win the mayoral election.

However, this might not be the case. For one, Birmingham Council has recently gone bankrupt, and is raising council tax by 21% and making £300m in cuts across the council. This is partly a result of the Conservative’s depriving Birmingham of £1bn since 2010 because of austerity, but Labour have run the borough since 2014 and have failed to deal with £760M worth of equal pay settlements in this time, and will get the blame for the sorry state of affairs in the city. This may not gain Street votes, but it may reinforce the votes he already got in 2021, and prevent Labour getting a significant lead. Additionally, Labour is likely to lose votes to Akhmed Yakoob, who is standing as a pro-Palestine independent in protest of the Labour leadership (and also preparing to take on Labour’s Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham Ladywood at the General Election), and may take thousands of votes off Parker in the heavily Muslim communities across the city. He polled 5% in Savanta’s polling, which could well be enough to decide the mayoral race.

If Labour can maintain roughly their 2021 lead, Parker should be able to win, and if I had to predict a winner with a gun to my head I’d say Parker is favoured, given I can’t see Street getting more votes in Birmingham even with Labour’s issues there. However, Labour will need to ensure it turns its own vote out in order for them to win, and it will definitely be a very close race.

In short, it will be a very close race between Parker and Street, which will largely come down to how Labour performs in the City of Birmingham. If Street wins, it will be a major boost for Rishi Sunak, and would be seen as an example of how the Conservatives can still manage to win, whereas if they lose, it would be blamed on the Conservatives’ poor brand name and Sunak would be heavily blamed. Meanwhile, if Labour loses, they may just attribute it to Street’s popularity, but if Street’s winning margin is lower than Yakoob’s vote, it would raise concerns about how Labour’s stance on Gaza is affecting their electoral performance, especially if generally accompanied with poor results in areas with high Muslim populations.

Police and Crime Commissioners

I’m not going to cover these in great detail. They are often overlooked, and it is hard to determine what local dynamics may be in play.

However, Labour should be looking at many gains off the Conservatives, who did very well in these elections in 2021. They will be hoping to gain many areas, including Avon and Somerset, Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Cheshire, Cleveland, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Hertfordshire, Humberside, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, North Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, Thames Valley and Warwickshire, and could well win many more commissioners, given that most people vote along party lines and Labour are leading in most areas at the moment.

The Liberal Democrats may be able to gain some commissioners for the first time, including Gloucestershire and Surrey, and Independent Mike Rees might be able to win Wiltshire, having come close in the by-election in 2021.

Conclusion

The local elections are likely to be a bloodbath for the Conservatives, and could potentially lose all the mayoral elections up for election — and a loss in Tees Valley and the West Midlands would be especially embarrassing for the Conservatives, although they may offer a glimmer of hope if the Conservatives won either or both.

As for what comes after? Who knows.