Tamworth
On the 19th October 2023, the voters of Tamworth will have the opportunity to elect a new MP for their constituency.
Tamworth was historically a small market town, first occupied by the Anglo-Saxons and then developed by the Normans (who build Tamworth Castle, pictured above). However it developed massively during the Industrial Revolution, with the Trent and Mersey Canal, the Coventry Canals and the Midland Railway being developed to enable Tamworth to manufacture goods and services to sell, in particular Cotton, with the first Cotton Mills being established by local industralist, Sir Robert Peel, 1st Baronet in 1788. He was also Tamworth’s Conservative MP from 1790–1820, and used his parliamentary influence to improve working conditions in factories.
His son, Robert Peel, 2nd Baronet, served as MP for Tamworth between 1830–1850, and was the prime minister between 1834–1835 and 1841–1846. It was in Tamworth that he revealed his ‘Tamworth Manifesto’, which is considered the foundation for the modern Conservative Party. Peel’s period in government was marked by a number of achievements, including legislation which cut working hours for women and children, the creation of cheap and regular rail services, and the introduction of the Metropolitan Police. He also controversially scrapped the Corn Laws in 1846, removing tariffs on imported food and corn, which marked a decisive shift towards Free Trade and benefitted 90% of earners in the UK.
Tamworth expanded even further in the 20th century, as it soaked up overspill from the West Midlands. The development of a major economic plan in 1960 led to a massive increase in Tamworth’s population, growing from 25,000 in 1961 to 72,000 in 2001. The towns industries now include logistics, engineering, clothing, brick, tile and paper manufacture. Until 2001 one of its factories was Reliant, which produced the Reliant Robin three-wheeler car and the Reliant Scimitar sports car. In addition to manufacturing and logistics, Tamworth has also become a leisure hub, with the Snowdome, a prototype real-snow indoor ski slope opening in 1994 and Drayton Manor Theme Park, a 113 acre theme park and zoo hosting 1.5 million visitors per year where Robert Peel used to reside.
(Drayton Manor is home to Thomas Land, where I have been multiple times with my family. I used to be a big fan of Thomas the Tank Engine and my brother still is. And at least the trains work better in Sodor than in Conservative Britain)
The Tamworth constituency principally includes the borough of Tamworth, but also takes in part of the borough of Lichfield, including the Tamworth suburb of Fazeley, the Birmingham suburb of Little Aston, the town of Shenstone and the rural Bourne Vale and Mease Valley.
Although the demographics of the constituency differ depending in the area, across the constituency Tamworth has average levels of employment, income and deprivation, lower than average levels of Education and House Prices and higher than average levels of home and car ownership. It is heavily pro-Brexit, with 66% of the electorate voting leave in 2016.
Being an average constituency has made the modern day Tamworth a bellwether in general elections, one that typically votes for the governing party.
‘Tamworth’ was abolished as a constituency after the Second World War, and became part of ‘Lichfield and Tamworth’. This voted Labour from 1950–1970, voting Conservative in 1970 before reverting to Labour in 1974, who lost it again in 1979. On its abolition, most of the constiuency became part of a new ‘South East Staffordshire’ constituency, with virtually the same boundaries as the modern day Tamworth seat.
David Lightbown, a right-wing Conservative MP who endorsed capital punishment, supported England’s 1984 rugby union tour of South Africa under apartheid and opposed the ordination of divorced men in the Church of England, became South East Staffordshire’s MP. With the Conservatives winning the general elections of 1983, 1987 and 1992, Lightbown had no struggle being elected, winning by 22.5% (10,898 votes) in 1983, 20.45% (10,885 votes) in 1987 and a narrower, but still comfortable 12.5% (7,192 votes) in 1992.
However, in December 1995, Lightbown passed away suddenly aged 63 while watching The Varsity Match in Twickenham. This meant a by-election. By then, after Black Friday, a series of scandals, a breakdown of unity in the Conservative Party and 17 years of Conservative rule, the Conservatives had fallen massively behind in the polls against the Labour leadership of Tony Blair, and this was a by-election they didn’t want to have. Just a year ago, Labour gained nearby Dudley West, which was demographically very similar to South East Staffordshire, on a 29.1% swing, the highest ever Conservative to Labour swing in a by-election, and it was widely expected Labour would gain the seat.
And while Labour didn’t quite manage a 29.1% swing, they still trounced the Conservatives in the resulting by-election, with a 22.1% swing to Labour, who won 60.1% of the vote, 31.6% over the Conservatives. The 13,762 majority got was more than the 12,393 votes the Conservatives got. This foreshadowed Labour’s landslide majority in 1997.
In 1997, the seat was sensibly renamed Tamworth, and Labour held the seat, not as decisively as in the by-election, but still by a comfortable 15.1% (7,496 votes). Labour held the seat throughout Labour’s time in government, although by decreasing majorities each time (11.4% in 2001 and 5.9% in 2005). Throughout this time, Brian Jenkins remained a backbencher, with no significant roles in Blair’s government.
In 2010, after 14 years of Labour, the Conservatives managed to regain Tamworth, with their candidate Chris Pincher defeating Jenkins by a comfortable margin of 13.1% (6,090 votes) as the party returned to power nationally.
Chris Pincher became a significant figure in the Conservative Party, and has held many ministerial roles. In 2017, he was briefly appointed as an assistant whip and Comptoller of the Household, before resigning after being accused of sexual misconduct by two individuals (Tom Blenkinsop and Alex Story). However, just two months later, he was appointed Government Deputy Chief Whip and Treasurer of the Household by Theresa May, before being appointed Minister of State for Europe and the Americas in 2019 and Minister of State for Housing in 2020. In February 2022, he returned to his former role of Government Deputy Chief Whip and Treasurer of the Household, until June 2022.
Throughout the Conservatives’ time in office, they have entrenched their grip on Tamworth, increasing their majority to 23.9% in 2015, 26.2% in 2017 and a record 42.6% in 2019. With a majority of 19,634 and 66.3% of the vote, it looked like Tamworth had become a Conservative stronghold that they would hold reliably for years to come. This was likely down to many factors, including Pincher’s (former) popularity, the Conservatives being more trusted on the economy, a general dislike of Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative’s support for Brexit, which Tamworth overwhelmingly voted in favour of.
That was until the 30th June 2022, when it was revealed that Pincher had “groped two men in front of others” at the Carlton Club in the St James’s area of central London. Pincher immediately resigned as Deputy Chief Whip, admitting he was responsible for the incident after having ‘drunk too much.’ Under pressure from MPs and facing public backlash, he had the Conservative whip removed 2 days later.
On 3 July 2022, six new allegations against Pincher emerged, involving behaviour over a decade. Three complaints are that Pincher made unwanted advances against other MPs, one in a bar at the House of Commons and one in Pincher’s parliamentary office. One complainant reportedly gave Downing Street details in February and expressed concerns over Pincher becoming a whip in charge of other MPs’ welfare.
Then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was aware of the allegations, allegedly referring Pincher as “handsy”. However, in true Johnson style, he initially denied this, before it was revealed that he was aware of allegations that were “either resolved or did not progress to a formal complaint”, before it was revealed that an official complaint against him was made was he was a minister in the Foreign Office which Johnson was aware of. This demonstrated that Boris Johnson knowingly appointed someone accused of sexual assault, but swept aside the allegations, presumably due to Pincher’s loyalty to Johnson.
On the 5th July, Johnson admitted he had appointed Pincher to a government position having being told about a misconduct complaint against him, acknowledging it was a “bad mistake” to not act on the information. Already plagued by evidence he had disregarded pandemic guidelines and lied about it, criticism about his record of delivery for the country and falling poll ratings (with two by-election losses in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton just a couple of weeks beforehand, and a poor set of local elections), this proved to be the final straw for Johnson. Minutes after the interview, Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak resigned from the government, and by lunchtime on the 7th July, 60 MPs had resigned from government positions, including 30 ministers, causing Boris Johnson to tender his resignation as Prime Minister.
Despite Johnson’s resignation as PM, and as an MP, Chris Pincher remained an Independent MP, although did not make any further contributions to the House of Commons and announced he would step down at the next election. However, his behaviour was investigated by the Commons Select Committee on Standards, which concluded in a report published on 6 July 2023 that his actions were profoundly damaging both to the reputation of Parliament and his victims, and an abuse of power, recommending an 8 week suspension, which would have led to a recall petition where his constituents would likely have voted to remove him as an MP. Pincher appealed his suspension, but his appeal was dismissed by the Independent Expert Panel on the 4th September 2023, and on the 7th September 2023 he announced his resignation as an MP, triggering a by-election in this seat.
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9 candidates are fighting to succeed Chris Pincher as Tamworth’s MP.
Of these, the MRLP, Peter Longman and Britain First are fringe candidates with no history in the seat, who are each unlikely to win more than 1% each.
This is not a hotspot for the Greens, who got 2% at the last election and have no local government base within the seat. Their vote share is likely to remain roughly the same, with this not being an area the Greens have targeted and their vote likely to be suppressed by tactical voting. The Liberal Democrats saved their deposit at the last election, getting 5.3%, and managed to make a breakthrough in the locals, gaining the Mease Valley ward and 1/3 councillors in Whittington and Streethay, however this is also not an area they have targeted and their vote is likely to be suppressed by tactical voting, and they will probably see their vote share drop to 3/4% in this by-election.
Being a heavily pro-Brexit area and one with a conservative view on immigration, this is the kind of place Reform and UKIP could possibly do well. However, they have yet to demonstrate any evidence they are a significant force in British politics, with poor showings in local elections and by-elections. Tamworth could be their chance to change that, with both candidates having stood in a number of elections in the constituency, and Reform will aim to keep their deposit while UKIP will hope for a result that shows they aren’t completely dead.
However, this race is ultimately a two horse race between two candidates, the Conservatives’ Andrew Cooper and Labour’s Sarah Edwards.
From their blowout loss in 1996, the Conservatives have improved their position in every election since, and Tamworth has become a very safe Conservative seat.
A 21.3% swing to Labour is needed for them to lose it, which is a tall order for Labour. To demonstrate how safe it has become — in 1996, a swing of 22.05% gave Labour a majority of 31.6%. If that same swing is repeated now, Labour would win the seat by just 1.5%, demonstrating the mountain Labour needs to climb to win the seat.
The Conservatives have selected Andrew Cooper as their candidate, a councillor for the Mercian ward in Tamworth and an Engineering Assurance Manager at Network Rail, as well as a former solider in the Staffordshire Regiment in the British Army. Initially, Eddie Hughes, the incumbent MP for Walsall North, was selected to contest the seat due to boundary changes to his current seat, however when the by-election was called he resigned as the PPC, as he would have needed to trigger another by-election in Walsall North to contest it — which obviously the Conservatives want to avoid. He appears to be a pretty inoffensive candidate (unless you are struggling to feed your kids, in which case he’ll tell you to fuck off) , although there doesn’t appear to be much information about him online.
However, the electoral coalition that powered Tamworth towards the Conservative Party is cracking. Like in 1996, a Conservative Party that has failed to deliver anything meaningful during their 13 years in power and plagued by a weak economy, a wide range of scandals (such as the scandal that triggered this by-election in the first place) and a breakdown of party unity is finally paying the price in the polls, with Labour consistently demonstrating double-digit leads and winning elections, including a seismic win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West earlier this month and gaining the formerly safe Conservative seat of Selby and Ainsty in July.
This was shown in the recent local elections in Tamworth. Until recently, the Conservatives had dominated Tamworth politics, holding nearly every council seat within the constituency as recently as 2022. However, in the 2023 local elections, Labour won 8/10 seats up for election on Tamworth council — an extraordinary turnaround given they won just 2/10 seats in 2022 and non in 2021. Coupled with the fact a number of Conservatives councillors resigned from the party to become Independents in August 2022, the Tories lost their majority on the council, although they still run the council in coalition with some of the Independents.
One of those new Labour councillors had to resign after taking up a politically restricted job, and in the resulting council by-election on the 5th October 2023 Labour expanded their winning margin to 9.2%, which while not necessarily a good indicator of the by-election (The Conservatives held a by-election in early 2023 before losing that ward and 7 others in the scheduled elections), indicates the Conservative position is weakening even further.
Despite the success in Tamworth, Labour did less well outside of it, with the Conservatives winning Little Aston and Stonall, Shenstone, Fazeley and Bourne Vale, whilst the Liberal Democrats won Mease Valley (Labour didn’t stand). In Whittington and Streethay, part of which is in the seat, Labour won one of the three seats, and came close to gaining a seat in Hammerwich and Wall, part of which is in the seat, but overall the locals indicated a narrow Conservative win. While an uncontested election in Bourne Vale and split wards make it hard to get an exact calculation, I estimate a notional Conservative lead of 1.5% (41.3% to 39.8%).
However, by-elections typically show a shift to the opposition relative to the last set of local election results. We saw this in the three by-elections in the summer. All the councils covering the three constituencies were last contested in 2022, and on average, there was a shift of *20.3%* against the Conservatives from the 2022 local elections and the 2023 by-election. Even in Uxbridge, where Labour (unfortunately) narrowly failed to gain the seat, their 1.6% loss there was far closer than the 19.4% they lost the constituency by at the 2022 local elections
Granted, both Tamworth and Lichfield councils were last contested this year, when Labour were even further ahead in the polls and the Conservatives even further behind, and some of the shift can be attributed to the Conservatives worsening national fortunes. Given Labour were 6% ahead in the 2022 locals and 16% ahead in the 2023 locals, you can probably assume that there was a 10% shift to the opposition between the by-elections and local elections if they were contested in 2023.
If you assume Tamworth shifts 10.3% to Labour from the recent local elections results, Labour would win by a comfortable 8.8%. This in its itself would be a very respectable result — it would be a 25.7% swing to Labour, bigger than the 23.7% swing in Selby and Ainsty and the 22.1% they got in the 1996 South East Staffordshire by-election, and the second biggest swing to Labour ever after the 29.1% in Dudley West.
However, there are a number of things that might affect the overall margin.
- The level of Conservative turnout. Turnout for the incumbent government is usually poor in by-elections, which is usually the most significant reason for a swing against them, as opposition voters have a greater propensity to turnout than supporters of the incumbent. It is entirely possible that the Conservative vote is weaker or stronger in Tamworth than the average in the Summer by-elections, although this is impossible to predict, and will only be clear once people actually cast their votes
- The level of tactical voting. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have no base here, and can expect to be squeezed. Labour will probably want to try and get the Liberal Democrats down to less than 2%, like they did in Uxbridge, although the Liberal Democrats (albeith small) base in the seat may reinforce their vote a bit.
- How well Reform UK and UKIP do. Being a heavily pro-Brexit constituency with a big social conservative population, this is fertile territory for right-wing populist parties, with many voters who may be disillusioned with the Conservatives but would never contemplate Labour. While Reform UK and UKIP have typically done poorly in by-elections during this parliament, they will both hope to put a respectable performance in — in the recent Amington by-election (contested by both the Reform and UKIP candidate), the two right-wing parties got 7.9% combined (6.3% Reform and 1.6% UKIP). If repeated, both parties would take a significant chunk of the Conservative vote, ultimately helping Labour.
- Labour did well in the borough of Tamworth, taking 8/10 seats and won the popular vote by 7.4% — which they should increase to at least 17.7% this time, which is enough to win the seat even if the Lichfield part of the seat votes strongly Conservative. However, Labour are much weaker in the Lichfield areas, and while the fact they fielded less candidates makes it hard to estimate the relative performance between the two parties it looks to be well over 30%.
However, this was skewed, with the Conservatives going uncontested in Bourne Vale, Labour not contesting Mease Valley and Little Aston and Stonall only having one Labour candidate for a two seat ward (the Conservatives won both seats comfortably). In an election where Labour has equal status on the ballot, you’d expect them to be able to build up somewhat of a support base. Labour won’t win in these areas — in Little Aston, some houses are worth more than £7m, with high-tech CCTV cameras on huge front gates, not the kind of demographic Labour have ever had any chance in- but getting 30–35% in these Conservative strongholds feels realistic, and this would be a significant improvement on the meagre vote shares implied by the local elections.
Additionally, Labour should be aiming to significantly improve their performance in Fazeley (61.8% — 38.2% Conservative at the locals) and Shenstone (69.1% to 30.9% at the locals), being areas demographically not significantly different from the borough of Tamworth, but perhaps not as heavily contested by Labour. Labour should be looking to at least run these areas close, if not win.
If all of these factors apply, it feels realistic that Labour could be winning by even more than 8.8%.
Verdict
Labour have stressed this is a ‘tough ask’ for the Labour Party, and with a 42.6% majority, rightly so — this is the biggest majority the Conservatives have had to defend in this parliament, and despite voting Labour during the Blair years, is now among the safest Conservative seats in the country.
However, Labour look in remarkably good shape to gain the seat again. The Conservatives failure to deliver for the country over the last 13 years — Tamworth has suffered from high-street retail decline, a lack of public investment and the loss of its police station, hospital and magistrates’ court in the past couple of decades — and the disgraceful behavior of the former MP Chris Pincher has cut through to the people of Tamworth, as demonstrated by Labour’s strong performance in the local elections, which is highly likely to be overperformed in the by-election.
Additionally, tactical pro-Labour voting, the presence of a couple of right-wing populist parties splintering the right-wing vote and Labour having the opportunity to make inroads in areas it has never previously targeted is likely to further secure the margin of victory.
The general consensus seems to agree with this. Although Labour claim the race is ‘neck and neck’, I understand their internal polling puts them ahead by a significant margin, and they believe their vote is hardening before polling day. From the Conservative side, Daniel Cook, who was the Conservative leader of Tamworth Council and probably knows the constituency better than most, has predicted Labour “will walk it” in the by-election and a leaked internal memo to the party chairman says that in Tamworth, “data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%”
Turnout wise, I’d expect a turnout of around 42%, down from 64.3% at the last election. A roughly 20% drop in turnout is typical for by-elections, and is slightly less than the 45.1% average for the July 2023 by-elections, all of which had higher GE turnout than Tamworth.
A higher turnout maybe suggests a better Conservative performance than expected, but overall I can’t see turnout having a big impact on the overall result
Margin wise, the race could be ‘neck and neck’, but I’m more inclined to think Labour will win more comfortably, with their margin possibly being as high as 20%, although being a bit more Conservative I’d probably say around 16% is most realistic, a margin of around 5000 votes. However, I can see Labour winning from anywhere between 8–20%. This would be a swing of around 29% — for context, the biggest Conservative to Labour swing is currently 29.1% in the 1994 Dudley West by-election, and Labour are probably looking at a similar swing here.
However personally think the internal memo from the Conservative Party is probably slightly understates the Conservatives, but if the Conservatives are really getting 33% or less, that it would be an seismic result in British politics — a drop of more than 33% (that would make it the biggest ever drop in the Conservative vote in a by-election, surpassing the previous record of 32.5% in the 1993 Christchurch by-election), a swing of at least 30% to Labour (this would mark the biggest ever swing to Labour in a by-election, surpassing the previous record of 29.1% in the 1994 Dudley West by-election) and if such a swing was repeated in a GE, would probably see the Conservative Party reduced to less than a dozen seats. While I would not personally predict this outcome, the fact it is a realistic possibility is a damning reflection on the Conservative Government.
Given the majority in 2019, a knife-edge victory for Labour would be a major victory for Labour, but a double-digit win would be an exceptional for them. We might well be looking at the biggest swing from Conservative to Labour ever (this will be achieved if the winning margin is over 15.6%) or at least a close second to it. While Tamworth isn’t offically a ‘Red Wall’ seat, it has many of the hallmarks of one, and a victory here would indicate that Labour is making major inroads with working-class voters who have turned to the Conservatives in recent years. While on paper it is a safe seat, its average demographics still fundamentally suggest its a bellwether seat which Labour really should be winning if it hopes to win the next general election. A Labour win here, coupled with wins in Rutherglen and Selby (and quite possibly Mid Bedfordshire), demonstrate Labour is firmly on the path to power.
Sarah Edward’s, a Unite the Union trade unionist who has previously worked for Oxfam and as an NHS Governor, will stand up for residents hit by the Conservative’s cost of living crisis, support local businesses and aim to revive Tamworth’s high street, push to fix Tamworth’s NHS and improve access to doctors and GPs, champion Tamworth’s green space and fix its roads and be an active voice for Tamworth. I believe she will be fantastic ambassador for Tamworth and the Villages, and I wish her all the best. Her election will be a firm repudiation of a failing Conservative Party that hasn’t delivered for Tamworth and has no plans to, and send a clear message that Tamworth wants its future back and trusts Labour to provide that future.
Will Labour hold it at the general election? It’ll certainly be tighter, and it ultimately depends on the electoral climate on polling day, but providing the polls don’t shift too dramatically against Labour, I’d say a double-digit margin of victory puts them in a good position to defend Tamworth in a general election. Boundary changes are minor, and are unlikely to have any significant impact on the outcome of the seat.
“The Conservative Party was born in Tamworth in 1834. It died in Tamworth in 2023” might well be the story on Friday Morning.
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Estimated Prediction : Likely Labour GAIN from Conservative
Rough Estimate :
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