Wellingborough
On the 15th February 2024, the voters of Wellingborough have the opportunity to elect a new MP for their constituency, to replace Conservative MP Peter Bone.
Originally named “Wendelingburgh”, the town of Wellingborough was established during the Anglo-Saxon era as a monastic grange, surrounded by five wells — Redwell, Hemmingwell, Witche’s Well, Lady’s Well and Whytewell — which provided water for the town, as well as giving the town its distinctive name. Historically, the water in the Red Well has been thought to have had healing powers, with King Charles I and Queen Mary being amongst its famous visitors.
For many centuries, the towns economy was predominantly based on agriculture. Being situated on a flood plain next to the River Nene, the combination of fertile valley bottom soils and drier hilltop soils was good for a growing a range of crops, many of which will have been sold at the local markets.
In 1201, King John granted a charter to the Abbot of Crowland for a market in Wellingborough, and the Wednesday market became a central part of the town’s identity. Wellingborough remains a major market town, with the town hosting an outdoor market three times a week (Wednesday, Friday and Saturday) along Market Street.
The town was also famous as a religious centre, home to All Hallows Church, first established in 1160, and Croyland Abbey, a manor house where many monks lived and worshipped (despite its name, it has never formally been an abbey. The manor is named after Crowland Abbey in Lincolnshire which it was once monastic grange for).
During the 19th and 20th century, Wellingborough began developing as a town. With major ironstone formations around the town, iron ore quarrying was a major industry in and around Wellingborough from the 1860s until the 1960s. Whilst these reserves had been exploited for centuries before, their high phosphorus content made them difficult to smelt — however, in 1870, James Rixon and Wiliam Ashwell opened a major ironworks in the north of the town supplied by the extensive ironstone quarries around Finedon to the east of the town, with three narrow gauge tramways serving the industry, the Wellingborough Tramway, Neilson’s Tramway and the Finedonhill Tramway.
Another major industry was shoemaking. In the 18th century, much the shoemaking industry moved to Northampton, which had good transport links to London and many major ports, and over the time the industry expanded to such a degree, especially after the American War of Independence (1775–1783) and the French Wars (1793–1815) that manufacturers outsourced work into the surrounding villages, including Wellingborough and Rushden. Therefore Wellingborough became the home of hundreds of shoe factories producing high-quality boots and shoes — the town specialised in the production of uppers (the part of the shoe covering the foot). Notable shoe manufacturers include Sharman’s, established in 1850, which has claim to owning the oldest shoe factory within the UK and J G Cox, the creator of the original ‘brothel creeper’ rockabilly shoe which went on to be worn by Teddy Boys, Mods and Punks, which survives to this day.
Today, the economic structure of the town has diversified, with the wholesale, logistics and services sectors being major employers in the town. A wide range of different businesses operate within the town including businesses centered around engineering, distribution, environmental technology and renewable energy, digital and creative media and financial services, with some high profile businesses including diesel engine manufacturer Cummins UK, park home manufacturer Tingdene Homes Ltd and self-storage provider Lok’nStore.
Being a well connected town (with the A45 dual carriageway nearby, trains from Wellingborough to London departing every 30 minutes and the close proximity of several major airports), Wellingborough is constantly seeing new development, including with the Stanton Cross Development, which will include amongst other things 3,750 new homes built, new public transport links and a new neighbourhood centre, and the new Glenvale Park development, set to bring a further 3000 homes to Wellingborough. Therefore, the town can expect to see rapid expansion over the next few years.
The constituency of Wellingborough also includes the townof Rushden and the adjoining town of Higham Ferrers, on the other side of the River Nene. Like Wellingborough, Rushden has historically been a big shoemaking town, at its prime including over 100 shoe and boot factories such as Sanders and Sanders, who made boots for the British Army, but nowadays only 4 remain. Like in Wellingborough, Rushden’s economic structure has diversified, and there is a a significant amount of new housing developments being erected in the area.
Retail is now a major part of Rushden’s economy, with the area benefitting from the opening of the Rushden Lakes Shopping Centre, opened in July 2017 on the site of a former dry ski slope, which includes shops like M&S, House of Fraser, Primark, JD Sports and H&M. The £140 million scheme is thought to have created over 1,700 jobs and and to have attracted £14.2 million per year to the local area.
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The demographics of the constituency of Wellingborough are broadly in line with the UK average, with the constituency having average rates of employment, homeownership, carownership and deprivation, although it is slightly less affluent than the average constiteuncy, with average incomes being £39,919 compared to the UK average of £42,397 and 50% being ABC1 compared to 56% nationally. 64% voted to Leave the EU, significantly above the UK average. These demographics suggest a bellweather seat, with whoever is in power nationally holding the seat.
Wellingborough has been a constituency since 1918. In its early days, owing to its big working-class population working in the local shoe factories, Labour won the seat in 1918, despite them only winning 57/707 seats nationally. The National Liberals gained the seat in 1922, but Labour won it back in the general election a year later and held it in 1924 and 1929. In 1931 with Labour imploding nationally, the Conservatives comfortably gained the seat, and held it in 1935, albeit by just 1%.
In 1945, after WW2, Labour regained the seat by a comfortable 15.42%, and held it for three more general elections, until the Conservatives narrowly gained the seat in 1959, by 1.34%. This Conservative victory was short lived, with Labour regaining the seat by just 47 votes, 0.1%, in 1964, who subsequently expanded their winning margin to 4.8% in 1966.
However, the winning Labour candidate Harry Howarth died in 1969, and a by-election was held. Labour had a bad track record in by-elections during the 1966–1970 parliament — by the time Wellingborough was held, they’d lost 14 seats in by-elections, 11 to the Conservatives — and Wellingborough proved to be an easy gain for the Conservatives, with their candidate Peter Fry winning a 14.58% margin over Labour.
Fry represented the seat for nearly three decades. While he won his first three general elections by less than 5%, during the Thatcher era the seat became a comfortably Conservative seat, with Fry’s margins expanding to 17.4% in 1979, 22.9% in 1983 and 25.5% in 1987, before declining slightly to 19.5% in 1992. Fry was a right-wing eurosceptic Conservative MP, often rebelling with the government over the Maastricht Treaty, and was a member of the Transport Select Committee from 1979 to 1992.
In 1997, with Labour achieving a landslide victory nationally, Paul Stinchcombe, a former environmental law barrister and speechwriter for Tony Blair, finally managed to regain the seat for Labour nationally. However, with Labour winning by 187 votes (0.33%), it was Labour’s narrowest victory in that election(although neighbouring Kettering was won by just 2 votes more), despite Labour’s historical strength in the seat and Labour winning a 177 seat majority nationally.
Labour was able to defend it with an increased majority in 2001, with Stinchcombe winning re-election over new Conservative candidate Peter Bone by 4.6% (2,355 votes), whilst Labour was returned with a similar majority nationally. Stinchcombe remained a backbencher throughout his parliamentary career, although he joined the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs select committee in 2001 after his re-election.
However, in 2005, with the Conservatives beginning to recover from their 1997 collapse, Peter Bone defeated Stinchcombe to regain the seat for the Conservatives, by a narrow margin of 1.3% (687 votes).
However, this was by far Bone’s closest contest — in the 2010 General Election, with the Conservatives regaining power nationally, Bone expanded his majority to a comfortable 22.8%, a margin of 11,787 votes and a 10.8% swing to his party. He won an even bigger majority in 2015 — expanding his majority to 32.5% over UKIP, with Labour narrowly being pushed into third (by 29 votes). Labour significantly recovered in 2017, increasing their vote share by 14.5% and slashing Bone’s majority to 23.4% (although Bone also increased his vote share by 5.3%), but in 2019 Bone expanded his majority yet again, winning by 35.7% (62.2 Conservative, 26.5% Labour), a margin of 18,540 votes, which was the largest Conservative majority that has ever been achieved in the seat.
Bone has clearly been well-regarded MP, going from winning by just 1.3% with 42.8% of the vote in 2005 to winning by 35.7% with 62.2% of the vote in 2019.
During his 19 year parliamentary career, he has mostly been confined to the backbenches, and like his Conservative predecessor Peter Fry, Bone was regarded as being a right-wing Conservative MP, and fervent eurosceptic. He has :
- Voted to restrict abortion past 12 weeks.
- Voted against abolishing the offence of blasphemy.
- Opposed the existence of the National Minimum Wage. In 1995, before his election to parliament, the Daily Mirror described Bone as Britain’s “meanest boss” when he defended paying a 17-year-old trainee 87p an hour (around £2.10 today) to work for his travel company.
- Opposed same sex marriage, and voted against the 2013 Marriage Act introducing them.
- Been amongst 4 MPs who in 2013 camped outside parliament to try and facilitate a debate on an ‘Alternative Queens Speech’ which they hoped Cameron would deliver. The MPs came up with 42 policies, including reintroduction of the death penalty and conscription, privatising the BBC, banning the burka in public places, and preparation to leave the European Union.
- Proposed a bill arguing that the August Bank Holiday should be renamed to Margaret Thatcher Day to commemorate her premiership. This was filibustered by Labour MPs, and the idea was eventually scrapped.
- Been a prominent eurosceptic, once tipped as a defector to UKIP, which he called “good thing for British politics.” He ultimately became a fervent eurosceptic within the Conservative Party, voting for Boris Johnson’s Brexit agreement although saying he would have been prepared leave without a deal.
However, he has been a member of the 1922 committee during his tenure, including five years (2007–2012 as an executive member). He was also very briefly promoted to the frontbench — After mass resignations from the frontbench in July 2022 which caused to Johnson announce his resignation as Prime Minister, Bone was promoted to Deputy Leader of the House of Commons, where he remained for three months, until he was sacked by Liz Truss in September 2022.
Bone has been under investigation a few times over his parliamentary career — he came under investigation in 2014 for expenses claims relating to the upkeep of his second home and he was investigated by the police between 2013–14 over allegations of £100,000 worth of fraud concerning benefit payments of care home fees for his mother-in-law (although in March 2014 the CPS deemed there was insufficient evidence to bring criminal charges) — however, it was allegations of bullying and sexual misconduct that ultimately caused his downfall
In 2015, the Prime Minister David Cameron recieved a complaint about Peter Bone from the father of a male staff member Bone had employed for three months between September 2012 and January 2013. The complaint alleged during the employee’s tenure, Bone bullied and sexually assaulted him. This complaint was repeated in 2017 to the new Prime Minister Theresa May.
After both Prime Ministers failed to address the complaint, in 2021, the male staff member himself reported Peter Bone to the Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme, which investigates inappropriate behavior from MPs, which led to an investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. The Commissioner subsquently upheld five allegations of bullying of harassment and one allegation of sexual misconduct. Bone unsuccessfully appealed the findings, and on the 16th October, the Commissioner reported to the House of Commons recommending a suspension for six weeks.
The panel’s report found that Bone :
- “verbally belittled, ridiculed, abused and humiliated” the employee, including frequently shouting at him and calling him “thick”.
- “repeatedly physically struck and threw things” at the employee, including on his back, shoulders and head
- On at least six occasions, demanded a neck and shoulder massage alone in the office
- Booked a twin room for the pair on a work trip to Madrid,and complained when the employee tried to separate the beds. Bone subsequently summoned the male staff member into the bathroom to fix a broken shower, and as he did so, Bone dropped his towel and exposed his genitals close to his employee’s face.
Bone denied the allegations in the report, stating the claims listed were “false and untrue” and “without foundation”, and that the investigation by the IEP was “flawed” and “procedurally unfair.” However, the IEP dismissed Bone’s remarks, ultimately determining the evidence against him was “compelling, nuanced and plausible”
On the 17th October, Bone had the Conservative whip removed, and on the 25th October, he was suspended for six weeks.
Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, a recall petition is issued if an MP is suspended for more than 10 days (as Bone was), meaning an MPs constituents can vote to remove their MP if they deem their actions serious enough. If more than 10% of the electorate of a constiteuncy sign the petition (in Wellingborough’s case the threshold was 7,940 signatures), an MP is removed from parliament and a by-election is held.
Peter Bone’s recall petition was successful, with 10,505 votes out of a possible 79,402 eligible votes (13.2%) signing the petition. This mean a by-election is now being held, which Peter Bone is not contesting.
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11 Candidates are vying to replace Peter Bone, most of whom are minor parties who will likely lose their deposit.
Ankit Love (I’m not going to try and type their full name),a very minor political party which advocates for clear air and a federal union of the world, is back for their third by-election of this parliament, having run in the recent Rutherglen and Hamilton West and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, getting just 0.1% in both, and there is no reason to think they’d do better here.
Also running as Independents are :
- Andre Pyne-Bailey (campaign video here)
- Kevin Watts, who is the husband of Andrea Watts, the Labour candidate in the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, who appears to have quit the Labour Party over disagreements with Keir Starmer’s leadership, and is now running as a local independent.
- Marion Turner-Hawes, who was the Green candidate at the 2015 and 2019 General Elections. She leads ‘Save the Trees’, which battles developers to protect the under-threat Wellingborough Walks lime trees. She is also an Independent parish councillor in Wellingborough.
Independents are usually heavily squeezed at by-elections, as they don’t have name recognition or resources to run a major campaign. They’ll probably get around 2–3% between them, maybe a bit more for Turner-Hawes who may retain a lot of her supporters who voted for her when she ran for the Greens.
The Monster Raving Loony Party, a joke party which stands in by-elections, advocates deliberately bizarre politics and aims to satirise British politics, is standing Nick the Flying Brick. While some people might consider them a good protest vote, they’ve usually only averaged about 0.5% when they’ve stood in this parliament, and they’ll probably achieve roughly that here.
We also have the far-right, fascist Britain First standing here, with their candidate Alex Merola, who previously ran for a council election in East Barnet in 2021, getting 0.8%, and is campaigning against Immigration and Foreign Aid. Britain First have stood in two by-elections this parliament — Wakefield, getting 1.1%, and Tamworth, getting 2.3%. Both times were with Deputy Leader Ashlea Simon, and it is unclear how well the party may do without her, but I’m guessing probably about 1%.
The Greens achieved 3.5% here at the last election with Turner-Hawes, above their national average of 2.6%, but still not enough to be considered a target area for them — at the last local elections in 2021, they got 4.2% across the constituency, and won no seats.
While some voters disillusioned with both the Conservatives and Labour over their climate pledges may boost their support, they will also lose many votes to their former candidate Marion Turner-Hawes, and I imagine overall their vote share will be down here (with Turner-Hawes potentially overtaking them). They are standing Bozeat Parish Councillor Will Morris as their candidate.
The Liberal Democrats got 7.9% here at the last general election, making this not a constituency they will be seriously contesting , and they will likely see their vote share drop significantly in the by-election as many of their 2019 supporters will move towards Labour to unseat the Conservatives. At the last set of local elections in 2021, they achieved 4.9% across the constituency with no councillors elected, and I imagine they’ll put in a similar performance here. They might campaign in some of the rural areas of the seat which are being moved into Daventry/South Northamptonshire at the next election, and try and attract some Conservative voters who don’t want to vote Labour or Reform UK, but I don’t imagine they’ll perform well across the constituency as a whole. Former Police Inspector Ana Savage Gunn is running for the party here.
One major factor on this by-election is this man, Ben Habib, who is running for Reform UK. A former Conservative voter and donor, he was a strong supporter of Brexit, which he argues can boost trade opportunities, make Britain more sovereign and allow the country to control immigration. He quit the Conservative Party in 2019 over its failure to deliver Brexit, and is now Co-Deputy Leader of Reform UK, alongside David Bull.
He is a former Brexit Party MEP for London between 2019–2020, and is currently chief executive of First Property Group, a commercial property investment and fund management company.
Reform UK have typically not performed well in by-elections. In the 9 parliamentary by-elections since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister — City of Chester, Stretford and Urmston, West Lancashire, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty, Somerton and Frome, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, they have averaged just 3.4% of the vote. These 9 constituencies contain a mix of urban and rural areas, a majority (5/9) of Conservative seats, and on average voted 52% to Leave the EU, exactly the UK average, so this is a good indication of how much support they had in 2023. On average, Reform UK has been achieving 6.4% of the Brexit vote in each constituency, on which basis you’d expect them to get 4% in 63% Leave Wellingborough.
However, their national polling has improved recently, with them now averaging about 10% in national polling, compared to around 6% in July and October 2023, when the last sets of by-elections were held. If the national polls are accurately representing Reform UK’s national level of support, you’d expect them to be getting 12.1% (10 x (63/51.9)).
However, in all five by-elections the Conservatives were defending last year, Reform UK underperformed their polling averages, with Reform UK averaging 3.7% in seats they ought to be averaging 6.9% in. If you assume that despite them gaining in the polls, Reform UK underperform to the same degree as they did last year, you’d expect them to be getting 6.5% (12.1 x 3.7/6.9)
However, Reform UK appear to be taking Wellingborough more seriously than other by-elections this parliament, sensing that there are many people in pro-Brexit and formerly safe Conservative Wellingborough that are fed up with are fed up with the Conservative Party, but are not willing to vote Labour who they see as anti-Brexit, pro immigration and not trusted on the economy, who they hope to appeal to. They hope that they can take such a big slice of the Conservative vote that the Conservatives feel pressure to shift rightwards to prevent electoral oblivion, potentially to the degree the Progressive Conservatives in Canada achieved in 1993.
Reform UK’s key pledges include cutting the tax burden by raising the income tax threshold to £20,000, freezing immigration and ditching the push towards net zero emissions, as well as bread and butter promises such as tackling crime and investing in Wellingborough.
Not only have they selected one of their most high profile figures as a candidate, but they appear to be running a full campaign within the seat, with a HQ in the centre of Wellingborough, have maybe hundreds (maybe thousands) of activists campaigning for them and Habib is routinely touring the constituency talking to voters.
While few people think they will win, it’ll be very interesting to see how well they do — this by-election will show whether Reform UK are a serious political force that are rapidly gaining support within the country, or whether they remain a fringe party with no real electoral potential.
Reform UK needs to be getting at least 12.1% to indicate that national polling is accurately representing their level of support nationwide. My feeling is that they will underperform national polling, but will poll quite a bit higher and will underperform significantly less than they in recent by-elections. My personal feeling is around 9.3%, halfway between 6.5% (what recent by-elections suggest they should be achieving) and 12.1% (what national polling suggests they should be achieving) (see above for calculations).
However, as I said before, this is the first by-election where Reform UK appear to be seriously campaigning in, and Reform UK have a chance to break historical precedence, and potentially poll as high as 15–20%, demonstrating they are an emerging force in British politics and perhaps setting the ground for future victories.
There are even some whispers of Reform UK coming in second place, ahead of the Conservatives. I think this is highly unlikely, given their record of underperformance and the fact the Conservatives need to be dropping at least 40% for this to be a realistic possibility (yes, the Conservative may be a perilous position in the polls, but this would mean losing around 2/3 rds of their 2019 vote and such a drop would significantly higher than in recent by-elections in Selby and Ainsty (26%), Somerton and Frome (29.6%), Mid Bedfordshire (28.7%) and Tamworth (25.6%) — in short, even now this is unrealistic). Nevertheless, if Reform UK can demonstrate they are seriously eating into the Conservative vote, this will put major pressure on the Conservatives to shift right to prevent electoral oblivion.
The better Reform UK do, the more they’ll eat into the support of another candidate — Helen Harrison, the Conservative candidate.
Helen Harrison is a councillor in Oundle (within the Corby constituency), and chairs the councils Health and Wellbeing Board, in addition to being a chartered physiotherapist by profession. She has had political ambitions for a while — she ran for Ashfield in 2015, Bolsover in 2017 (increasing the Conservative vote by 16%, and more than halving Labour’s majority) and has been recently shortlisted for Bridgwater, Chippenham and Rugby, being unsuccessful in all three attempts. Therefore, when a vacancy came up here, she was a strong contender for the Conservative nomination.
Perhaps ‘strong contender’ is putting it a bit mildly. Maybe a ‘shoe in’ is more appropriate. Given that she is also the girlfriend of a certain very senior Conservative figure in the area.
Peter Bone. The disgraced outgoing Conservative MP.
A women isn’t defined by the men she has associated with, and if Harrison had distanced herself from her disgraced boyfriend, this fact may not be an issue for her. However, she has been spotted campaigning with him after he was forced out in disgrace (and said that she was ‘proud’ to have him with her), and has openly disputed the allegations against him.
Additionally, it is clear there was some blackmail — with Peter Bone dragging out the recall process to put pressure on the Conservatives to allow Harrison be his successor and threatening to stand as an Independent if his girlfriend wasn’t selected. In fact, Helen Harrison herself has admitted that the Conservatives promised her a place on the shortlist if Peter Bone quickly resigned.
Her selection has made it impossible for the Conservatives to move on from the disgraceful behaviour of Peter Bone, and will likely cost them support in the by-election.
As for how the by-election appears to be going for them, the Conservative campaign office and clamped car outside it have regularly become a metaphor for how the Conservatives are likely to fare.
Just a few years ago, the Conservative seemed to be impenetrable in Wellingborough. After their best result ever in 2019, they carried that forward into the 2021 local elections, where they received 61.1% across the constituency and 26/27 council seats, a very strong result near identical to 2019 performance. If Peter Bone was a decent man, there is a good chance he would have held on even on a bad night for this party.
However, nearly three years on, and the picture couldn’t look anymore different. The Conservatives have crashed and burned in the polls, averaging about 24% in opinion polls (around 45% down on their 2019 performance), with Labour averaging around 20% ahead, as voters believe the Conservative are unable to manage the challenges the country faces. This, Combined with a noticeable Reform UK presence, Peter Bone’s disgraceful conduct and the selection of his loyal girlfriend as his successor , and it looks very bleak for the Conservatives, who have reportedly largely given up on trying to defend it.
Given the Tories were on about 42% in 2021, you’d expect them to be getting around 34.9% now (61.1 x (24/42)). However, with the controversy over Helen Harrison and with Reform UK seriously contesting the seat, I think it’ll go even lower than that.
My personal feeling is they’ll get around 29.6%, around 5% lower than what the polls suggest. This would be a drop of 32.6%, with the Conservative vote more than halving. This is higher than their drops in recent by-elections, including Selby and Ainsty (26%), Somerton and Frome (29.6%), Mid Bedfordshire (28.7%) and Tamworth (25.6%). However, I’m expecting Reform UK to poll at lot better here (9.3% is nearly 4% higher than the 5.4% they achieved in Tamworth, their best performance last year), and therefore a higher drop is realistic.
This, and indeed any result under 35%, would be a disasterous result for the Conservative —potentially polling at under half their 2019 vote, underperforming their already atrocious national polling and it would be a landslide defeat in a constituency they only narrowly lost in their 1997 nadir. It would be a strong indication that the Conservatives are heading for electoral destruction at the next general election, aided by a strong Reform UK presence splitting the right-wing vote. They can’t afford to go any lower, but its a very real possibility if Reform UK put in a strong performance, even if they remain a clear second.
35–40% would be classed as a poor result, but not as bad as it could be, and show that their polling position is either similar or slightly improving from last years by-elections. Losing, but getting over 40% would probably classed as a fairly good result — while this would mean a significant drop in their vote share, they would only narrowly be defeated, and can realistically hope to recover the seat at the next general election, when many Reform voters who protested against them at the by-election, but are strongly opposed to Labour, will likely return to them. However, I think the chance of such a result are very remote.
In reality, amidst all the drama on the right, there is only one candidate has a realistic chance in Wellingborough.
While Labour have declined significantly since they last held the seat in 2005, Labour can be optimistic about turning the tide here, with the Conservatives in meltdown, their large nationwide polling lead, and having overturned bigger majorities in recent by-elections. People are fed up with a government that has presided over a stagnant economy with rising and soaring mortgage rates, a declining NHS, crumbling infrastructure, increasing crime rates, increasing poverty, a broken immigration system and a decline in Wellingborough’s town centre. Many people are seeing Labour as a viable alternative that will start to repair the damage the Conservatives have done over the last 14 years.
Genevieve ‘Gen’ Kitchen will be the Labour candidate in Wellingborough. The 28 year old (young, but with 25 year old Keir Mather gaining the safe seat of Selby and Ainsty last year, that should not hold her back) grew up Northamptonshire and attended Caroline Chisholm Sixth Form before studying History and Politics at Queen Mary University, London (2013–2016). She subsequently became a Labour councillor for the Boleyn ward in Newham between 2018–22, and has spent her entire career in the charity sector supporting homeless people into employment, helping vulnerable women to improve their lives, creating new clinical nurse specialists, and raising over £1 million for cancer research. Charities she has worked at include the Children’s Hospice Sarcoma UK and the Children’s Heath Charity.
Now, she wants to return to Northamptonshire with her husband Joe — she was on honeymoon in Suffolk in December 2023 when she found out Bone had been recalled, and is now standing to represent Wellingborough and Rushden in parliament.
Said to be an ‘experienced and passionate campaigner’, I’m confident she will be a breathe of fresh air the people of Wellingborough and Rushden deserve, and will be a strong voice for the constituency. She has five key pledges that she plans to focus on as Wellingborough’s MP — campaigning to put more money in people’s pockets, working to get knives off the street, campaigning to repair local NHS services, campaigning to fix pothole in the local area and campaigning to revitalise Wellingborough and Rushden’s local high street — all of which are very important to the people of Wellingborough
Until recently, Wellingborough was always going to be a difficult seat for Labour to win — this is number 226 on Labour’s target list, and in the 2021 local elections, won just one seat (in Croyland and Swanspool, which contains the town centre), and just 26.9% of the vote, a far cry from the 61.1% achieved by the Conservatives. However, as I’ve said, the picture couldn’t be more different now. I’m predicting a 32.6% drop for the Conservatives, of which around 9% will go Reform UK, and the rest is likely to switch to Labour, putting them comfortably ahead of the Conservatives.
My personal feeling is they’ll get around 49.1%. This would be an increase of 22.6%, which is near identical to their vote share increase Selby and Ainsty (21.4% increase) and Tamworth (22.1% increase). However, this would be Labour’s strongest by-election yet — it would indicate a comfortable Labour majority of around 20%, and a swing of around 27.5% — for context, Tamworth, currently the biggest Conservative to Labour swing in this parliament, saw a 23.9% swing to Labour, and such a result would be the second biggest swing from Conservatives to Labour ever, behind the 29.1% swing in Dudley West in 1994, at the nadir of the Major years. It is quite possible, especially if Reform UK put in a strong performance, that this record is broken. It would also demonstrate that Labour is winning even without Reform UK splitting the vote.
Extremely good for a seat that would have been deemed unwinnable not so long ago.
Labour’s vote share is most likely to be in the 47–50% range, which would be considered a very strong result for them, demonstrating their polling position is holding strong just months before a general election. Getting over 50% would be extremely good result — it would indicate that the Conservative are sliding further backwards, and may well represent the worst defeat to Labour ever. Crucially, it would indicate that Labour are winning even without Reform UK eating into the Conservative vote, showing that the Conservatives can’t just hope to recover by hoping to squeeze Reform UK during an election campaign, and demonstrating the strength of Labour’s lead.
42–47% would be considered a very respectable result, with a comfortable majority and and would clearly indicate that Labour are in a strong position just months out from an election. Under 42%, and Labour may start to get a bit worried — the result is likely be a narrow Labour win, if one at all, one that can probably be overcome by Reform UK voters moving to the Conservatives, and be a weaker result that Mid Bedfordshire and Selby, Tamworth. However, I think 45% is the lowest Labour will realistically go.
However, despite the fact Labour are likely to win comfortably, no party should be complacent, and still need to work on knocking on every door they can and persuading people to make a positive vote for their party.
Turnout is likely to be significantly down, especially given its February and the weather may be cold or rainy. Turnout was 64.3% here in 2019, below the national average 67.3%, but not a ‘low’ turnout. Its difficult to predict exactly what it will be this time, and how willing former Conservative voters are to switch to Labour or Reform UK rather than staying at hone, but I imagine it be around 37-43% — a drop of at least 20% on the last general election.
Whats Next
For the next General Election, there will be some minor changes to the constituency (although nowhere near as big as Kingswood, which is being split between three seats at the general election) — it will lose some rural territory to the south and west of Wellingborough, whilst gaining the town of Irthlingborough from the Corby constituency. These make the constituency slightly more marginal, with the new constituency having a notional 33% Conservative majority, compared to 35.7% now.
Whilst Irthlingborough has typically been Conservative, Labour have a good shot at winning the town at the next election if they are on course for a comfortable victory here.
Perhaps most significantly, the constituency will be renamed ‘Wellingborough and Rushden’, a sensible change given that Rushden is a major part of the constituency.
Labour’s chances of retaining the seat will partly depend on how much they win by. But as a guideline, if the Labour vote exceeds the Conservative + Reform UK vote, they are very likely the retain the seat at the general election. My feeling is that Conservatives will probably recover slightly, and get around 35% at a GE, whilst Labour retain the seat with around 46%, although this could be much closer if the polls start to close (and without going into too much detail — that’s for my next by-election preview, about Rochdale — Labour may be starting to land themselves in hot water, but I don’t believe the drama there will trickle down here to any significant degree).
Conclusion
With Labour leading the Conservatives by 20% in the polls, Reform UK making a serious effort and Conservatives being plagued by their disgraced incumbent, I’m expecting Labour to comfortably gain the seat from the Conservatives, and Gen Kitchen will become the MP until the election is called.
This by-election will be signficant for many reasons. It will indicate whether the Conservatives are recovering from the dire straits they have been over the last couple of years or whether they are still accelerating towards defeat. It will indicate how strong Labour’s polling position is, and whether it is in a good position to win the next general election and gain nearby seats like the two Northampton seats, Corby and Kettering. It also is an opportunity for Reform UK to indicate whether they are breaking out of their cycle of underperformance, or remain an minor presence in British politics.
Wellingborough is not a major target for Labour, with it being a seat that even Tony Blair struggled to win in his landslide victories. A win here would demonstrate that Labour are achieving far beyond what they need for a majority, and that unless something seismic happens, the Conservatives are heading for the back door by the end of the year. A strong Labour win, which I widely expect to happen, would indicate a catastrophic result for the Conservatives, and thar they are in for a crushing defeat, even worse result than in 1997.
One things for sure, the Conservatives will need a lot of trips to the ‘Red Well’ for their polling position to even slightly heal.
FINAL PREDICTION : Likely Labour GAIN from Conservative
